Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 202 ‘Makhachev vs. Green’

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There are no two ways about it: The Ultimate Fighting Championship show on Saturday may not be the best event of the weekend, even if no organization is putting its best foot forward. Betting options for this slimmed-down 11-fight event with a slap-dash headliner are quite limited, and a figurative minefield of options looms. The UFC Fight Night 202 edition of Prime Picks will dodge and weave this unfortunate lineup, aiming for a play on the seemingly mismatched headliner, an underdog worth reviewing, a middleweight prospect smash-’em-up derby and a moderate favorite’s plus money for doing what he does best.

Islam Makhachev-Bobby Green Goes Over 1.5 Rounds (-165)

It is incredibly tempting to slap Green at +600 as a Prime Pick, given that he presents a sprawl-and-brawl-oriented style that could give a forward-driving wrestler fits. Hand speed, volume, activity—Green has won twice since Makhachev last competed—and sturdy takedown defense with a solid get-up game all make the massive underdog appear tasty. Submission vulnerability appears to be a thing of the past for the “King,” as he has not surrendered to any maneuver since David Mitchell hit a toe hold on him in 2009. The chin has held up, as well, beyond a first-round knockout from Dustin Poirier five and a half years ago, and Green has faced wrestlers capable of delivering mighty ground-and-pound. Alas, Makhachev can still get this done in a very clear fashion, so instead of a flier on Green, an option where he can survive through the first 7:30 and even still win is worthwhile.

Through Makhachev’s UFC tenure, the Dagestan native has only hit the under three times across his 10 victories. Makhachev’ pressure, along with his constant forward momentum and undaunted grappling, make opponents wilt, whether it is Thiago Moises in Round 4 or Drew Dober in the third frame. There is practically no doubt that his strategy will be exactly the same as it was when he blew through Dan Hooker in less than half a round, and Green has not trained for this kind of opponent for long. The same does go for Makhachev, who switches from a power-punching submission artist in Beneil Dariush to a volume striker who does not stay on the mat for long for those who can get him there. Makhachev’s approach will work effectively against both opponents and Green may yet be able to fight off a takedown or two, but it is not the first, second or even third that gets the job done on most occasions.

Sometimes, fighters perform at their best when there is nothing to lose. Whether this means in their retirement fight, if they come in short notice or if they are otherwise playing with house money, their stock can practically do nothing but rise. This is firmly the case for Green, who is expected to lose to such a dominant degree that Makhachev getting the stoppage is at -230 odds. Green will come into this catchweight contest having to cut 35 pounds in a few weeks, so this could play a factor if the fight carries on into the later rounds; if it does, the play will have already hit. The Pinnacle MMA standout surely knows he will be taken down eventually, so the key to outlasting his opponent is to not let Makhachev claim dominant, fight-ending position over him no matter the cost. Even if the stars are all aligned for Green to blow up Makhachev’s party, the smarter, safer money is likely better off banking on his survivability and volume striking that could keep the favorite at bay long enough to make it beyond the midpoint of Round 2. The rest is gravy.

Joel Alvarez (+185)

There is a significant caveat for this lightweight matchup between the underdog and surging Russian grappler Arman Tsarukyan: weight. The Spaniard has missed weight in each of his last two outings and not by a minute amount. Despite this, he has barely needed over three minutes to dispatch his opponent in both offerings, albeit after suffering a 30% fine for each. Weight could play a factor for the submission specialist—one who has found power in his fists and elbows since joining the promotion—should he not get the job done early. In terms of competitive edge, as well as level of competition faced thus far, the odds should be far more even than they are listed. This gives value to selecting “El Fenomeno,” who can be found at upwards of 2-to-1 odds on the right book.

This matchup could bring all the wild scrambles and reversals of a grappler’s delight, as Tsarukyan hits a takedown only to get swept and a lengthy exchange in search of position ensues. While both men would prefer to secure top position, it is Alvarez who appears to be the more comfortable of the two off of his back, as everyone who has tried to take him down has succeeded, but none saw their hand raised in the end. Threatening with submissions off his back, keeping Tsarukyan guessing and making him stay busy defending himself rather than getting off ground strikes will largely prove to his benefit. No fighter has tapped Tsarukyan to date, but Alvarez has the chops to do it from basically any position with a laundry list of moves. The fight may be wild, and Alvarez could definitely drop a round if he gets careless, but at his line, he is worth a consideration.

Armen Petrosyan-Gregory Rodrigues Goes Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)

Barring an extreme weight miss, there are no fights on this card heavier than 185 pounds. Of the two matches booked at middleweight, this will serve as the obligatory main card knock-down, drag-out battle between unranked fighters looking to entertain the masses. Unlike some heavyweight pairings that inspire jokes as to why they were featured so highly on a fight card, this battle between heavy-handed prospects could very well lead to a victor who should be watched going forward. As Petrosyan debuts, Rodrigues has rattled off a pair of wins since joining the league in 2021, and both men prefer to leave the judges out of the equation. In their 17 combined wins, 15 have come inside the distance, and 12 have concluded before the halfway mark of Round 2. Bet that this one ends before that time, as well, with the winner not nearly as crucial in this line as it wrapping fast.

“Superman” Petrosyan will face a not-insignificant level up in competition when he faces “Robocop” in a matchup between nicknames shared by heroic characters. Unsurprisingly, offense is the name of the game for each fighter, and it will not simply carry on as a straight boxing match. Petrosyan lit up the UFC Apex in his spot on Dana White’s Contender Series when he leveled then-unbeaten Kaloyan Kolev with a head kick in the opening frame. Although the Brazilian fell short in his own offering on DWCS, two brutal knockouts in Legacy Fighting Alliance punched his ticket to the major leagues. It may boil down to who lands first when it comes to a fight between men who rarely like to take their foot off the gas. If one needs any additional indication on how bettors are leaning in this one, a few United States-based books feature odds around -185 that this fight will end by knockout—period. Coupling this option and the aforementioned pick of the bout resulting in a knockout bring forth a sweet little parlay of +177, which is an all-or-nothing expectation that violence will ensue.

Ignacio Bahamondes Wins Inside Distance (+185)

In order for Zhu Rong—aged 21 but very possibly a fighter who cuts age like Shane Carwin cuts height—to get his hand raised, he will have to drag the fight to the canvas. The Chinese fighter did this to secure his first win inside the Octagon, frustrating Brandon Jenkins until he pounded out a stoppage that may have been a bit early. Bahamondes, however, is a far cry from Rong wrecking shop among the ranks of Wu Lin Feng, amassing a 10-fight winning streak with nine finishes, only to fall short in his UFC debut to Rodrigo Vargas. In three appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series or the UFC, Bahamondes’ opponents have tried to ground him to take his vicious kicks away, but none of them have succeeded. A whole 75% of the Chilean’s wins have come inside the distance, and Bahamondes can improve that mark in this favorable matchup.

With “La Jaula” as the favorite at upwards or above -200, it is not enough to simply grab the moneyline on an expected outcome like Bahamondes getting his hand raised. Should Bahamondes rattle off another highlight-reel knockout, he would be the first man to stop Rong with strikes, but the opportunity also exists for the favorite to club-and-sub his man, hurting him with strikes before latching onto a choke. The likelihood of his securing the first knockout or technical knockout over Rong is not extremely unlikely, given that six of the Chilean’s nine KOs came over men who had never been knocked out before meeting him. Roosevelt Roberts attempted to put Bahamondes on his back at all costs, trying and failing a dozen times to get him there. As long as the threat of the takedown from Rong does not stifle Bahamondes’ varied striking game, he has more tools to get the job done before the judges get involved. The alternate play, of course, is that he wins by decision, and that resides at +168 if you expect the durability of the Chinese fighter to keep him in the fight to the bitter end.