Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 204 ‘Volkov vs. Aspinall’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday sets sail for jolly ol’ England for the first time in years with the first non-United States, non-“Fight Island” event overseas since the coronavirus pandemic hit. Matchmakers built this card with a clear U.K.-versus-the world angle, and as a result, most of those relatively local to London are coming in as betting favorites. In the UFC Fight Night 203 edition of Prime Picks, join us for plus money in the main event, a battle that should rage all 15 minutes, a big favorite who provides a good option in a prop and a great Scot who appears to be allergic to the final bell.

Alexander Volkov (+110)

Team Kaobon’s Tom Aspinall has not encountered a great deal of resistance since surging into the UFC from quick destructions in Cage Warriors Fighting Championship. Every career win for the Brit has come inside the distance, and none have resulted any later than 6:09 into a fight. On the other side, both of his past fights that went longer than that mark resulted in losses, even if one came by disqualification. Against Russia’s Volkov, Aspinall will face a foe that rarely gets blitzed early, with a great deal of experience for fights that go into the later rounds. As “Drago” shifts into plus-money territory and the line widens as the bout grows nearer, this underdog play sticks out like a sore thumb.

To say Aspinall is a fast starter is an understatement, with five sub-minute victories and 10 of 11 wins coming before the midpoint of Round 1. His lone triumph following the first frame came against savvy vet Andrei Arlovski, who still fell victim to a rare submission even though signs of fatigue began to creep in for the eventual winner. It has been over eight years since Volkov succumbed to an early series of strikes, with those from hulking force Vitaly Minakov under the Bellator MMA banner. Since then, Volkov has faced many of the heaviest hitters the division currently offers, and only Derrick Lewis could find and ultimately crack his chin after Lewis lost the lion’s share of the fight. This high-stakes encounter for Aspinall will serve as an excellent litmus test on where he stands in the division.

Many questions loom for the man who will have the entirety of the crowd on his side in the O2 Arena in London. What happens when throws bombs and his opponent does not crumble before his feet? How will he fare should this go into the later rounds? With Volkov holding a few inches on him in height and wingspan, can he adjust if he struggles to reach his target? If he changes things up, will he be able to get Volkov down, and if so, can he keep the Russian down? This remains a battle between a known quantity and one that is still as of yet unknown against top-tier talent, and this provides value on “Drago” as the underdog. Aspinall could yet rise to the occasion, and those that expect he will pull off a win should look no further than +170 for the stoppage. Volkov, however, knows how to enter hostile territory, drag a fight deep, keep the fight at his preferred pace and range and generally avoid damage. This all makes him a worthy option for the headliner.

Arnold Allen-Dan Hooker Goes to Decision (-165)

Part of a new breed of fighter that excels at every aspect of the game, Allen has surged through the featherweight division to amass eight wins after eight walks to the Octagon. He will not completely dominate all 15 minutes of the fight, but he has proved that he knows how to win fights and fight to his best advantages. Whether by landing takedowns on strikers or outboxing grapplers, “Almighty” has strung together a win streak to challenge the almighty members of his weight class. He will now meet top-flight ex-lightweight Hooker, who returns to 145 pounds after a dozen affairs at 155. While Arnold does show flashes of the power that can put anyone away—he dropped sharp striker Sodiq Yusuff with a precise left hand in his last trip to the cage—Hooker’s durability can keep the fight going for three hard rounds.

New Zealand’s Hooker excels as a frontrunner, pushing a fast, high-volume pace and forcing foes to fight off their back foot. Even though he will maintain a five-inch reach advantage over his opponent, Hooker does not always fight to his strength and range, instead welcoming brawls that do not always go in his favor. “The Hangman” can effectively mix in takedowns if needed, but they largely come as he rolls downhill, already in the driver’s seat before grounding the likes of Nasrat Haqparast or Marc Diakiese. Finishes that used to come for the Kiwi have fallen away when going up against top contenders, and Allen has not made a mental mistake that rises to him even getting hurt, much less stopped. This looks to be quite the thriller that should go the distance and a suitable option for the co-headliner as a future title challenger will likely emerge when the dust settles.

Gunnar Nelson Wins Inside Distance (-135)

A hefty favorite despite how long he has been away from the cage, fan-favorite grappler Nelson will gain a favorable replacement opponent when Takashi Sato steps in for Claudio Silva. The submission specialist will take on a man who would vastly prefer to keep it standing, and as long as Nelson has not lost several steps since his last fight in September 2019, he can run game on Sato. The specific line for Nelson by Submission—a preferred option at about even money—is only selectable on a few books right now, so it is partially to hedge bets in case Nelson pounds Sato out and also due to availability.

Nelson is capable enough on the feet to not get dispatched before securing a takedown, and the loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio remains an outlier not just for the eye pokes but because of the quality striker that is the Argentinian. Sato’s best hope is that when Nelson inevitably gets in close to try to drag the fight to the mat, he can make “Gunni” pay with elbows and short shots that make Nelson think twice. The fighter out of Japan is far from the poster child of activity, with just four UFC appearances since joining the promotion in 2019, but he has fought twice since Nelson’s last outing. The former SBG Ireland faithful has only fallen short to elite-level opposition dating back to 2015, and Sato has not displayed the skills that put him in that caliber yet. Picking this prop for an otherwise prohibitive favorite makes Nelson here a reasonable option.

Paul Craig Wins Inside Distance (+320)

The finish-or-bust Scotsman known as “Bearjew” is currently at decent plus money around +150 to +165, and that line may shift once local money comes in on several fighters from the region. An opportunist at its finest, Craig can snatch up a finish from the jaws of defeat on a moment’s notice, and his history is littered with examples where he may have been losing until he pulled off the stoppage to get his hand raised. While in many cases, a simple moneyline at plus money would be a safer play, if Craig is going to win, it will be as he keeps his 100% finish rate intact. As he has faced growingly impressive competition—his win over Jamahal Hill will age exceedingly well—he has not taken as much of a beating as before, and he faces an adversary in Nikita Krylov who is of the same vein of a fighter that loathes involving the judges.

Before facing current champ Glover Teixeira, Krylov had only once before reached a third round as a pro, and he had never seen the scorecards. Whether a change of his approach to something less of a glass cannon or that the level of opposition can take his best shots and fight smart instead of recklessly, Krylov has fought to three straight decisions. That streak ends against Craig, win or lose; no matter who you pick, Fight Does Go to Decision at -195 is well worth the choice by itself or as a leg of a small parlay. It remains to be seen who Krylov represents on fight night, as a recent display of the fight billing did not list him with his residence country of Russia or his one of birth in Ukraine, and it is unclear how much the Russian invasion of Ukraine will factor into his performance. It could empower him, a la Maryna Moroz recently, or it might play to his detriment if he comes out emotional and makes a mistake that allows Craig to capitalize. The alternative line is clear: Krylov gets it done before the final bell, which is also a plus line of +120.