Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 207 ‘Volkov vs. Rozenstruik’

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After a rare week off the airwaves, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday kicks into summer gear with a 14-bout showing that might not break the box office but still provides several great betting lines with which to work. The UFC Fight Night 207 edition of Prime Picks will roll on with what seems to be a favored Prime Picks heavyweight due to his skill set, a Dana White’s Contender Series-“The Ultimate Fighter” battle, a wild grappling affair that should end in a finish and the likely conclusion to a campaign of nonsense that resulted in a brief UFC signing.

Alexander Volkov (-160)

The onetime Bellator MMA heavyweight kingpin has seen his name crop up many a time since the 2019 retooling of Prime Picks, with six bouts thus far discussing his involvement. In those picks, Volkov was suggested in five of those six outings, and he holds a record of 3-2 in those, with recent losses to Ciryl Gane and Tom Aspinall his only setbacks. The other selection came ahead of his battle with Curtis Blaydes, and the expectation that Blaydes’ wrestling would spell Volkov’s undoing proved accurate, even if Blaydes did not secure the stoppage. When Volkov takes on heavy-handed, low-volume kickboxer Jairzinho Rozenstruik, it should net another win for the Prime Picks column when aiming for “Drago,” based on the style matchup that largely should favor the Russian.

Few men Volkov’s size use their range as properly as he does, with an 80-inch wingspan that he weaponizes brilliantly. Some may lament that his approach of keeping opponents at bay with jabs and front kicks results in slower, plodding matches, but a 65% knockout rate is nothing at which to sneeze. Volkov can be content to touch rather than swing with bad intentions, but that has given him much success over the years. After only 12 walks to the Octagon, Volkov has already landed the seventh-most strikes in heavyweight history, a credit to his volume and steady pace. In a division where most—including Rozenstruik—know that it “only takes one” to land a knockout, Volkov can string five or six together and beat an opponent through attrition rather than one momentous bomb. In doing so, Volkov also stifles the offense of many an adversary.

For such a large man, Rozenstruik moves deceptively fast. He is the quintessential one-hitter quitter archetype, and Alistair Overeem—and others—can attest to that. Until he achieves that sought-after knockout, however, “Bigi Boy” does not present a round-winning style. Single punches or kicks come out, and while they can cause problems as rounds progress, especially if he targets the leg, but this appears to be a significant gap in striking approaches. Rozenstruik has never landed a takedown since joining the roster, and Volkov has landed a few but does not typically bother with them. This figures to be an all-standup affair, and the Russian sniper with effective lateral movement should have the upper hand as long as he does not stand still or get backed up to the wall. Barring a Derrick Lewis-esque late finish, Volkov can cruise to either pick up a decision or finish in the middle rounds, and the moneyline gives enough value that a method need not be called.

Lucas Almeida (+185)

With the co-main event featuring a prohibitive undefeated favorite, the next fight up on the card comes at featherweight between two men with drastically different trajectories. On the one hand, heavy favorite Michael Trizano won the lightweight bracket of “The Ultimate Fighter 27,” which is also known as the season in which every fighter came in with an unbeaten record. On the other, Almeida fell short for the first time in his career on DWCS, picked up a win weeks later in Brazil and earned the callup to the big leagues. Trizano prides himself on being especially well-rounded, with no major deficiencies anywhere and above-average skills should the fight hit the mat. Almeida is all offense all the time, with every one of his 13 victories coming inside the distance. Based on Almeida’s own prowess for ground fighting, there appears to be considerable value in the newcomer.

Even though Almeida is the fighter in this pairing who has gone to and won a fight in the fifth frame, the question of his cardio still looms. With the lion’s share of his wins coming in the opening round, the Brazilian very much attempted to impose his will early and often against Daniel Zellhuber in 2021. Zellhuber survived the worst of it, turned the tables, even taunted Almeida when Almeida faded and went on to claim the decision. The newcomer will not have to worry as much about the standing offense from Trizano as he did Zellhuber, as Trizano does not carry the kind of constant attack style that the unbeaten Mexican possesses. Unless he gets put on his back or shoved into the wire for long stretches of the fight, Almeida can do enough to pocket two rounds or even snatch up a neck when they are both dry.

Alonzo Menifield Wins in Round 1 (+140)

There is much to unpack in this light heavyweight tilt pitting Menifield against Askar Mozharov—a UFC debutant and unabashed fraud—but before diving into the tales of intrigue, it is prudent to check out Menifield’s body of work. At 34 years of age, “Atomic Alonso” appears to be growing and developing as a fighter, as he is still young in his career with just 14 pro bouts. The first nine fights for Menifield all went his way in dramatic fashion, never needing to fight more than 32 seconds into the second round to put someone away. Unlike most young fighters, Menifield never took it easy, as his only matches took place in Bellator, the Resurrection Fighting Alliance, the Legacy Fighting Alliance and DWCS before joining the UFC roster. This is in stark contrast to the now-infamous career of his opponent.

Mozharov came into fight week, according to the UFC, with a solid record of 25-7, with all but two of his victories coming by finish. The diligent Sherdog Fight Finder team disagreed and maintained his record at 21-8, with some lingering questions about that tally. Fervent, thorough investigations and a great deal of work ultimately led to a final result of 19-12 for the fighter from Ukraine with multiple names who claimed he was also from Belarus in the past. Coupled with three quick knockout victories in 2020 that appear questionable at best, Mozharov is all hat and no cattle. After all, only five of his 19 posted wins came over opponents with records above .500, with 11 of his victories against those that had never won a professional fight. Without rehashing that FF-Files piece, it became clear that the inflated record of Mozharov had more holes than Swiss cheese, and his glaring deficiencies on the mat shone like beacons.

To be fair to the man nicknamed either “No Mercy” or “Black Jaguar,” Mozharov is an extremely dangerous striker for the first minute. Eleven of his stoppages—two others are recorded without times attached—clocked in under 60 seconds, and he always comes out hyperaggressive. Powerful kicks from both legs are his best weapons, as his hands are more of the finishing touches after he hurts someone with leg strikes. The speed with which Mozharov can get his leg up that high, despite his considerable bulk, is impressive in a division that can sacrifice speed for power. However, as time passes in the round, things begin to change. Whether it actually takes just two leg kicks to down Menifield, like it did Evgeniy Golub in Mozharov’s most recent MMA match, remains to be seen. For all of Mozharov’s aggression, Menifield is the type of opponent who can meet it or slow it down enough to capitalize and strike back hard. Since the release of the afore-cited article, the betting line has shifted strongly in the American’s favor, so getting him at plus money for a first-round finish is maximizing value on an outcome many expect. Should one wish to be a little safer, Menifield wins inside distance at -165 or the fight lasting under 1.5 rounds at -220 are the best bets there. Get them while you can.

Damon Jackson Wins Inside Distance (-130)

With a fighter as offense-minded as “The Leech,” it might come as a surprise that he, as a massive favorite above -600, can also provide a line of his pulling off a stoppage close to even money. The expectation of a finish is not remotely to denigrate the skills of Dan Argueta, who powered through some tough regional- and feeder-level competition to get the call to the UFC on short notice. Being an LFA champ these days is practically a surefire way to get brought into a DWCS episode or as a late replacement for the UFC, and Argueta fit the part by replacing fellow action fighter Darrick Minner. Jackson’s ability to chain submissions and threaten practically anywhere the fight goes gives him an edge against fellow grappler, and it is where he can hope to excel and hand Argueta his first career defeat.

The first UFC stint for Jackson did not go his way, as an extremely unorthodox reverse bulldog choke, a performance-enhanced Rony Mariano Bezerra and a draw with Levan Makashvili spelled his ejection from the league for the first time. Since coming back to the UFC after setting a litany of impressive LFA records, three wins in four appearances have Jackson on the verge of contender status. Argueta deserves a place in the promotion, whether it was on short notice or if he had to fight through the so-called “puppy mill” that has become DWCS, but this is a tough ask with a small amount of time to prepare. Argueta’s best path to victory is to put Jackson on his back and shut down his offensive guard, racking up top control and dropping elbows. Otherwise, the larger man nicknamed “The Leech” will slowly and methodically work his way towards a finish, frustrating Argueta but certainly not derailing his promising career entirely.