Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 219 ‘Andrade vs. Blanchfield’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday will shell up at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for the first of two weekend shows before branching out for a while. A mix of lines lay strewn about this card, with a pick’em over a fight that could fall apart for weight reasons and a few big favorites who do not merit enough juice in the squeeze. The UFC Fight Night 219 edition of Prime Picks takes the easy way out on this hastily created main event, while turning the majority of the attention to three underdogs with distinct paths to upsets.

Jessica Andrade-Erin Blanchfield Lasts Under 3.5 Rounds (-145)

On a pairing like this thrown together on a week’s notice, there are a plethora of unanswered questions coming into it. How will Andrade’s condition be just four weeks after her last fight, a three-round piledriving that may yet take “Beatdown of the Year” honors? How will Blanchfield adapt when having to change her approach to a drastically different fighter from Taila Santos to former champ Andrade? Can Andrade bulldoze the youngster like so many others, or will Blanchfield meet her like a brick wall and plant the Brazilian on her back? Finally, will the later rounds matter, since this is booked as a five-rounder? For that question, we hold that one fighter will get the finish before it is all said and done, and at -145 for one woman getting it done before 17:50, that is extremely fair.

Andrade has not competed beyond Round 3 since her rough five-round defeat to Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2017, and to say “Bate Estaca” has retooled her game since then would be an understatement. Andrade comes out of her corner fast and furious, but unlike the lion’s share of fighters who fight as if they were double parked, she can keep that pace up for at least 15 full minutes. Ask Lauren Murphy how the final round went for her in January, when she absorbed 95 significant strikes in that last gruesome five-minute stretch. Including the Murphy drubbing that merited a corner stoppage, Andrade has finished five of her last six foes in victory. If she does blow Blanchfield out of the water, it will likely be within the first two rounds.

The only ways to shut down Andrade of late are to either beat her at her own game by blasting her early, being the stronger woman in the cage or staying just off the gunnery range while landing shots of your own. Beyond Blanchfield surprising many by imposing her mighty grappling on the powerful Andrade, those paths are not replicable given what the New Jersey native has shown in the cage thus far. There is a chance that Andrade could attack early and often like her hair is on fire and burn out the lesser reserves of cardio she has as a short-notice replacement. If Blanchfield weathers the storm and fights back with takedowns or at least clinch opportunities where she does not take major damage on the inside, she could find that the grappling comes easier when Andrade fatigues. If she is able to get Andrade down, for example, late in Round 2, and can duplicate that success in Round 3, she could impose her will and get the stoppage on the fading former champ. It is unclear how “Cold Blooded” will fare after Round 3 herself, but the likelihood of her needing those championship rounds is relatively low given the two women’s approaches.

Josh Parisian (+205)

Thrust into the obligatory heavyweight slobberknocker the UFC seems to dump on most main cards lately, Parisian and his 87% career finish rate draws two-time Dana White’s Contender Series victor Jamal Pogues. Alternating wins and losses since punching his own ticket after a long and drawn-out track that included a stint on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Parisian has yet to find his rhythm in the big leagues. Most problematic is his gas tank, as he has registered just one win in the third round or later since 2017. Against him will be “The Stormtrooper,” an ex-light heavyweight who has moved back up in weight but has not brought that power with him. Pogues has competed to the 15-minute mark or beyond in each of his last four outings, which may be why he is favored against a fighter who can flag badly. Still, Parisian will be the largest competitor he has faced to date.

Pogues’ best path to victory will be to exploit Parisian’s less-than-stellar defensive wrestling game and even shakier get-up prowess. As a fighter that has to cut down to the heavyweight limit, Parisian will be taller, longer, stronger and faster—the latter only for a time. The first round is Parisian’s most dangerous, so Pogues will need to make a quick decision of whether he wants to stand and bang with a nifty but lumbering striker like Parisian or take the path of lesser resistance and take those weapons away. Pogues could easily spoil the party and cash as a favorite if he wears Parisian out in the opening frame, forcing the Scorpion Fighting System rep to fight off takedowns and work his way off the fence. Despite a direct avenue he can follow and perhaps excel in the second and third rounds, Pogues should still not be a -250 favorite against anyone in the division yet, especially someone who can land a spinning backfist at that size. Every minute that ticks off the clock should tilt things in Pogues’ favor as long as he is not getting clobbered. However, the potential for Parisian to at least not use his size to topple over on top of Pogues and pound on him gives the upset some serious potential.

Jim Miller (+185)

The Book of Miller was thought to be written some five years ago after he succumbed to the fourth loss in four walks to the cage, with a brutal Dan Hooker knee putting him out cold. In a division exceedingly unkind to the elderly, Miller is a remarkable exception who is not only defying the odds but proving he still he has plenty more left to show. Determined to make it to UFC 300—this will come around May 2024, if the promotion maintains it pace—Miller at this rate may mark himself as a most unlikely contender rather than an aging vet riding out the remainder of his goodwill on the heels of a lengthy skid. This matchup on short notice is no longer against the powerful but reckless Gabriel Benitez. Instead, it comes against recent failed 145er Alexander Hernandez, who also aims for Round 1 knockouts and often places himself in harm’s way to achieve them. Miller had been preparing for a surprisingly similarly styled opponent, while Hernandez had not been in a camp, so it may come as a shock that “The Great Ape” is heavily favored. It is still far too soon to count out Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller.

If you were asked back in 2021, between Miller and Hernandez, which one would be on a winning streak and which one would have lost a few, it is likely most would have picked the elder statesman to be the one struggling. Both Erick Gonzalez and Nikolas Motta—talented prospects on the regional scene, to be sure—drew the short straws and had to face the New Jersey native in their promotional debuts, and the chasm of Octagon experience worked in Miller’s favor both times, as he survived the early going and punched out both men. Against fellow grizzled vet Donald Cerrone, Miller avenged a 2014 loss and did not even have to cut weight to meet him there. Between his traditional fighting style and the late-notice nature of the pairing, Hernandez will likely have five minute of gas in the tank. Miller, who has only gone down twice in the first round after a truckload of in-cage experience, can once more display that these young whippersnappers have another thing to learn. “A-10” can still crack, and even though he has waned in the later rounds in his last three losses, the venerable vet should have more cardio than his opponent in this one. Unless Hernandez comes out and trucks him within the first 90 seconds, Miller can turn the tables and get the job done as a big underdog.

Jamall Emmers (+112)

The likes of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Yaroslav Amosov and Philip Miller do not grow on trees. It is a rare occasion for someone to start their career on a mighty winning streak and far more elusive for that streak to stay intact after joining a major organization. History is littered with competitors like Douglas Silva de Andrade, who came into the UFC with a gaudy 22-0 record, only to fall to pieces in his promotional debut. These flashy records tell one of many tales, but the most common thread is the level of competition that person faced to amass such a shiny ledger. In the case of Khusein Askhabov, debuting at 23-0 after a layoff of nearly three years, it would not at all be surprising if he goes the way of Julio Cesar Neves Jr. or Luis Rafael Laurentino, whose jaunts against worthy opposition shattered the mystiques of their practically flawless win-loss tallies.

When Askhabov last competed, he tipped the scales no higher than 136 pounds against a 3-0 opponent in Ukraine; and he was not even fighting for a title or in a main attraction spot. His first 13 victories came against opponents with six combined wins and a few more losses. Meanwhile, Emmers, the underdog, is a sizable featherweight whose fourth professional outing came against the aforementioned Hernandez—a sign that his strength of schedule has been grueling from fairly early on in his run. While Emmers himself has not firmly established himself as a UFC-caliber fighter yet, with his only win coming against a man since drummed out of the UFC, he does at least hold that victory under the brightest lights. Emmers himself has also been away from the stage for a great deal of time, so while cage corrosion may be a factor for him, as well, he will have physical tools at his advantage. Against current top-ranked Giga Chikadze, “Prettyboy” not only held his own but came on strong as the match progressed and arguably won it. The Chechen is a slick submission practitioner, but most of his tapouts have come early. Provided Emmers does not fall into a trap like the one Pat Sabatini laid his last time out, he can outmuscle and outhustle the debutant to spring the upset.