Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 239 ‘Tuivasa vs. Tybura’

Who doesn’t love a heavyweight main event? The Ultimate Fighting Championship is banking on the appeal of two rugged men around 250 pounds or higher to slug it out and thrill the fans inside of the UFC Apex this Saturday in Las Vegas. The collision in the main event is one of the lone bouts on the billing with ranked competitors, and betting options are slim or risky because of some unknowns. Join the UFC Fight Night 239 edition of Prime Picks as we traverse the treacherous terrain of two T-named competitors in the main attraction, watching the weigh-ins closely as we suggest a few choice prop bets across the lineup.

Tai Tuivasa-Marcin Tybura Last Over 1.5 Rounds (-130)

A few years back, defensive wrestling was the liability of Australia’s Tuivasa, who could not get everything going against names like Blagoy Ivanov and Sergey Spivak. Thanks largely to a swath of striking-first opponents, Tuivasa carved out a name for himself at heavyweight. Tuivasa found that his barroom brawl tactics would no longer suit his needs as the opposition rose to the Top 5 or a little beyond its confines. Getting punched out by Sergei Pavlovich and having his guts rearranged by Ciryl Gane were humbling moments, but Alexander Volkov having his way with “Bam Bam” on the feet before locking down a picture-perfect Ezekiel choke was very telling. Luckily for Tuivasa, Tybura can do some of those things; it just takes him a while.

Poland’s Tybura has still not quite shaken his inability to get out of the way of blitzing strikers within the first minute, but after he calms down, things tend to smooth out. Like Tuivasa, Tybura has struggled to beat any name past Alexander Romanov to comfortably slot him into the Top 10. Still, his wrestling has opened up opportunities on the feet to make what once was a liability now at least neutral ground. Tuivasa is fully capable of making this look easy. It would not surprise many if he marches down “Tybur” and slugs him in the chops to put him away in 45 seconds. Barring that early and genuine stoppage potential, the duration of this bout could extend and even reach the championship rounds.

Most of the wins in the Octagon for the 38-year-old Tybura have come via decision, which includes some more durable names like the aforementioned Spivak and Ivanov. It has been some time since Tybura has repeatedly wrangled adversaries down to the ground to keep them there and grind out a fight. Instead, Tybura has used the fence as the other half of his heavyweight sandwich, where he squeezes foes against the cage wall until their backs look like lunchmeat. This is another aspect of wrestling in which he has succeeded, beyond simply the lather-and-repeat takedown game, and it is one where he can wear someone down like a power-punching Tuivasa. It will likely be up to Tuivasa to break out of these exchanges or catch Tybura coming in to smash this play and his opponent’s face simultaneously. If he cannot get out of the grip of the Polish powerhouse, time will tick off the clock, and our box will be checked.

Macy Chiasson Wins by Decision (+105)

A fair amount hinges on this pick: First and foremost, it centers on whether Chiasson can make bantamweight. It is far from guaranteed that the favored woman in rematch of “The Ultimate Fighter 28” final will make weight. If the fight stays together and does not transform into a catchweight, there is no pressure to bet on Chiasson replicating her success from 2018, only taking longer to get there. Opponent Pannie Kianzad has gone the distance in all eight of her matches since returning to the UFC in 2019, so if confidence in one fighter over the other is not great, be sure to attach Fight Goes the Distance at -310 to make a decent parlay of some other pick like Thiago Moises.

Both women have struggled the last few years, going 2-2 since 2021, but their losses tell slightly different stories. While Chiasson missed weight against Irene Aldana, she was likely up on the scorecards before taking a flush upkick to the liver to shut her down. On the other side of the equation, Kianzad was one step behind Ketlen Vieira and Raquel Pennington to put herself in the upper echelon of the bantamweight landscape, which displayed a clear ceiling on the Swede’s future. Despite five years in the UFC for each participant, their general skills have not transformed as much as they have been honed to a degree. The weaknesses are still prevalent, as Kianzad is susceptible to getting nullified on the mat, while Chiasson can be overwhelmed on the feet. This rematch, years in the making, might look similar to the first encounter, but it may last longer than before.

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (-105)

Three things are absolute in this world: death, taxes and Prime Picks calling for a play on Meerschaert getting a finish in a fight. It does not matter if that line closes at +500 or if it is even money like now, as it is extremely valuable and worth pursuing. Against former welterweight Bryan Barberena, Meerschaert should have a size advantage and enough durability to work through Barberena’s seemingly exhausted but always aggressive “slug it out” approach. As Makhmud Muradov reminded fans less than a year ago, Barberena’s takedown defense is porous at best, and “GM3” can exploit that and put him on his back to either threaten with ground-and-pound or any number of submissions.

Unlike Dustin Poirier, Meerschaert can embody the “when in doubt, jump the guilly” method and succeed. The Kill Cliff Fight Club product is just two guillotine chokes shy of the UFC record, and he is not afraid of attempting one should he get pushed. If Barberena gets careless and presses the action too recklessly, bending over to throw strikes or ducking down to evade shots coming back his direction, Meerschaert could just as easily snatch up the maneuver he has landed seven times on his ledger. That weapon is just one of the many tools in the 36-year-old’s arsenal, and his diversity of attack, plus a 100% finish rate in the Octagon, makes a -105 prop bet on him getting the stoppage in a fight he is already favored the right call.

Josiane Nunes (-145)

There is a real caveat to betting on this fight, and it is one that we suggest means waiting until Friday afternoon to place a wager: This bout is contested at 135 pounds. Both of these former featherweights will be cutting down to reach the 136-pound limit, and it is not a foregone conclusion that they will be able to make the mark. While Nunes is a fireplug at 5-foot-2, the taller, longer Chelsea Chandler has struggled to get down that low in the past. If they both make weight, bet Nunes. If the underdog misses, get in before the line swings more heavily in Nunes’ favor. The reason for the pick of this preliminary tilt is short and simple: Nunes likes hitting people, while Chandler does not like getting hit.

It was a very telling moment when Chandler turned tail and sprinted away from Norma Dumont when the Brazilian landed cleanly on her. It was the kind of display that some referees might have recognized as verbal surrender and waved off the contest. Still, at the very least, it eliminated any confidence a prognosticator could have about her durability and heart. At 30, even just seven fights into her career, the Cesar Gracie product is very likely in her final form, other than some minor adjustments here and there. Chandler would prefer to grapple first, and getting the short, stocky flamethrower on her back is no easy feat. With the power to put opponents down, plus a gas tank that can keep up a high pace and stellar volume for all three rounds, the line on Nunes is such that she is a solid option.