Prime Picks: UFC on ABC 7 ‘Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship reminds the masses of several fighters who struggle to get into the United States with a show in the Middle East. The ABC airwaves will get an early morning event, starting at noon on the East Coast, with plenty of violence potential and extremely wide betting lines. Join the UFC on ABC 7 edition of Prime Picks as we abandon all chalk ye who enter here and spring for four underdogs, ranging from reasonable to less plausible.

Cory Sandhagen (+270)

After five UFC appearances, Umar Nurmagomedov has absorbed 26 significant strikes. Cousin of the great Khabib Nurmagomedov, he is seemingly just as effective at neutralizing opponents thanks to his suffocating wrestling and remarkable ability to shut down scrambles. But for one solid punch from Bekzat Almakhan, it was a flawless outing for Nurmagomedov his last time out. It is a giant step up in competition from the ghost of Raoni Barcelos and the questionable fight history of Almakhan to a former title challenger in Sandhagen. It is a surprise that the Russian is such a massive favorite at -340.

It might make sense on paper for Nurmagomedov to serve as the betting favorite, given his skills and the dominance he has displayed thus far in the Octagon. However, the two have been swimming in different circles, with Sandhagen a regular among the Top 10 while Nurmagomedov is trying to crack in. Sandhagen has only failed the grappling test against Aljamain Sterling, arguably bested T.J. Dillashaw and was soundly outworked by Petr Yan. The others? Highlight-reel finishes, prolonged beatings where the doctor stepped in after 20 minutes or corners should have thought about pitching towels. It will be in Nurmagomedov’s best interest to take the fight to the mat, or at least threaten it early, to take some of the commitment out of his opponent’s strikes and make him hesitant.

Sandhagen rarely gets grounded. If he does, it is once, maybe twice, in a fight. To drag “The Sandman” to the mat twice in a 25-minute encounter is an achievement, and Nurmagomedov may be able to do that, but it is far from a foregone conclusion. Even the great Dillashaw, arguably the best wrestler to grace the bantamweight division, only managed to get Sandhagen down twice in a whopping 19 attempts. All the while, the Elevation Fight Team competitor put Dillashaw through the wringer, outlanding him by the final bell and connecting on him more than anyone had in a single bout. The taller, longer Sandhagen can advertise the price of admission, making Nurmagomedov pay when the Russian closes the distance, shoots for takedowns and gets stuffed. With a proven ability to fight five hard rounds and turn on the jets in the later periods, Sandhagen could unquestionably hand Nurmagomedov his first pro loss and land the sizeable upset.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (+215)

The most recent outing for Sharabutdin Magomedov did not go swimmingly, even though the unbeaten Russian did procure the stoppage in the middle of the third round. Antonio Trocoli put the screws to “Shara Bullet” and let up, at least in part because he ran out of gas due to being a short-notice fill-in. Not particularly known for his striking, Trocoli stung his man on more than one occasion but saw his energy reserves dwindle before he could get the job done. As Magomedov progresses logically up the middleweight roster, he faces brick-fisted Oleksiejczuk, who should be much closer on the lines if it remains a pure striking affair.

Against less-than-prepared opposition, Magomedov has been able to run with high volume while remaining surprisingly accurate. While his offensive grappling has been lauded in the past, he has not had to display it against any noteworthy foe. It would be in his best interest to drag the Polish fighter to the mat, as the ground game is his kryptonite. Oleksiejczuk’s losses are primarily via submission, but he is lucky as Magomedov has yet to land one as a pro. When the fists fly, based on how hard Oleksiejczuk hits and how defensively sound he has been, plus money is not objectionable as long as it remains on the feet for as long as it lasts. The fight lasting under 2.5 rounds at -185 is also a solid option if the confidence in “Hussar” is nowhere to be found.

Tony Ferguson (+425)

Staring down the barrel of the longest losing streak in UFC history—that would be eight—Ferguson somehow had enough goodwill with the organization to get one more crack at getting his hand raised. Most of the assets that made “El Cucuy” great have faded, and flashes of brilliance are few and far between for the 40-year-old. His chin has taken a turn for the worse, and his recoverability has dilapidated almost completely. No longer can he make that mighty comeback or turn things around when things do not immediately go his way. Ferguson cannot find that extra gear to pull off a win if he gets behind. Why is he worth a shot as the biggest underdog of the night? This is partly due to his opponent, as the struggling Michael Chiesa should not be a -600 or greater favorite against anyone in the promotion.

Chiesa has presented as a “live by the sword, die by the sword” grappler, capable of landing spectacular submissions but also able to get overwhelmed and tapped out dramatically. Perhaps due to his eagerness to grapple, “Maverick” has found himself strangled on three occasions with brabo chokes, the most in promotional history. Until Vicente Luque landed two in 2021, Ferguson held the UFC record for the most brabo chokes landed, maintaining it for over five years. He might not be the lights-out advantageous grappler who can snatch up a submission in the blink of an eye, but Ferguson is still opportunistic and capable of capitalizing on some openings. The slowing Chiesa, who has grown leaps and bounds in his boxing but still has plenty of deficiencies, is just the name to crash into Ferguson, leave himself open due to either a lapse in judgment or overconfidence against the unlucky “El Cucuy” and step into the D’Arce.

Alonzo Menifield (+180)

In his last assignment, Menifield was ready to run through a brick wall to get his hands on Carlos Ulberg. In perhaps one of the worst decisions in recent memory, “Atomic Alonzo” crashed forward with his hands down and his melon straight up in the air at a striker capable of knocking one’s block off. The resulting collision was an embarrassing 12-second clean knockout and a bunch of questions about why anyone at Saekson Muay Thai thought that would be a good game plan. Whether Menifield just went rogue or if his team thought they would catch Ulberg off-guard, it spectacularly blew up in his face. It is unlikely Menifield does this again, and even though he throws down against a talented unbeaten foe next, his sheer power gives him a real chance at spoiling the part of “The Professional.”

Azamat Murzakanov is plagued by inactivity, with time peeling off the clock as he has passed the 35-year mark after just three UFC appearances since 2022. Menifield doubles that. Murzakanov has earned a place in the rankings by clubbing Tafon Nchukwi, Devin Clark and Dustin Jacoby—the latter demonstrated that he may become a contender. Menifield is a live underdog against anyone he faces, but he is pretty hittable and sometimes throws his strategies out the window when getting caught cleanly. If the two engage in a power-for-power match, Menifield has just as much chance at scoring the upset as Murzakanov does of shutting his lights out. With five inches in reach and ample horsepower to drive through the hips with a blast double, Menifield can put the Russian on his back foot with his marauder approach, just as long as he does not leave his chin on the gunnery range.