Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 48 ‘Strickland vs. Magomedov’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship fulfills its broadcasting obligations with a show at the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas and deposits it onto ESPN airwaves. Little in the way of divisional relevance will play out across the dozen-bout billing, and a few lopsided matches may provide for some thrilling and brutal finishes. Join the UFC on ESPN 48 edition of Prime Picks as we somewhat-reluctantly pick the favored man in the marquee matchup, express confidence in a few early stoppages and take note of a frontrunner who fades when the going gets tough.

Sean Strickland (-150)

The level of competitive difference from Dustin Stoltzfus to Strickland is a veritable chasm, even in the UFC’s rough middleweight division. That is how the promotion is elevating Abusupiyan Magomedov, the 2018 Professional Fighters League middleweight finalist, who has earned exactly one win in the Octagon to date. Some need years to crack into the Top 15, let alone to snag a matchup against someone in the Top 10. The organization must see something in Magomedov, who is skipping the line and could find himself in prime position should he get past Strickland. With all the questions that still loom about “Abus” regarding his lengthy layoff, this may be a hill too steep to climb for the Russian by way of Germany.

Strickland has arguably reached cruising altitude in the middleweight division. His last appearance, a late-notice bout that was shifted to 205 pounds when Nassourdine Imavov stepped up, was par for the course for the brash 32-year-old. Capable of high-volume affairs, with decent movement and footwork to keep him safe—save for a crushing loss to Alex Pereira—Strickland loves to engage in boxing matches with his foes. His power at this weight category is not one of his best attributes, and he is not the most accurate of the bunch, either. Instead, he makes up for it with numbers, from the sheer quantity of jabs and twos he spams. Strickland can wrestle but generally chooses not to, as he plies his trade on the feet.

If Strickland is largely pigeonholed into the role of a fist-first striker, then it is Magomedov who is more of a kickboxer. His front kick introduced himself to Stoltzfus and the promotion, stunning both, and the uppercut that followed was a thing of beauty. One of the major complaints about Strickland in the cage is that he can find himself unable to get out of first gear, even if his opponent is pulling ahead. Magomedov swings for the bleachers every chance he gets, and he can at times bully his way forward with his looping strikes to set up takedowns. Strickland will need to keep his head on a swivel early. However, Magomedov’s mad berserker style will not likely be able to hold up for five rounds while Strickland’s jab is constantly in his face. Beyond a spectacular spinning wheel kick back in 2018 and the left hook of future champ Pereira, few have caught Strickland flush. It may end up being a workmanlike performance in which the Californian lays claim to four of five rounds, but he is the far more known quantity proven to be able to keep up late in a bout. Magomedov could shock the Apex with a win, but at this line, the value still remains with the moderately favored “Tarzan.”

Brunno Ferreira Wins Inside Distance (-150)

This event features three undefeated fighters in what could amount to showcase matches, although the first one on the undercard might end up blowing up in a Norwegian competitor’s face. Michael Morales is favored for a reason, but the durability of his opponent leaves a question of which prop bet to process. In the main card opener, however, Ferreira will collide with Uzbekistan-based newcomer Nursulton Ruziboev, who takes this fight on short notice and has a history that should not be skipped. The Brazilian sports a 10-0 record with 10 finishes, and based on his destruction of Gregory Rodrigues, he should have more than enough firepower to put Ruziboev away before he is able to get his own game going.

A grappler by trade with decent top game, the fighter known as “Black” came over from Uzbekistan to train at Renzo Gracie Philly, a prominent camp with several big names who have won. This undoubtedly will level him up more, but stepping in to replace Abdul Razak Alhassan against a flamethrower like Ferreira is an extremely tough ask. Some might be dazzled by the 34 wins and 32 finishes on his ledger, but that tally falls apart quickly under scrutiny. A large number came against untested or outmatched opposition; for example, a promotion trotted him out as a 33-fight vet to blow through 0-1 Leonid Antonov as recently as 2019. A few decent names are sprinkled across an otherwise inflated resume, and the eight defeats largely came when a foe did not fall to his back from the first takedown attempt like a fainting goat. Additionally, Ruziboev, his representatives or some trying to become his reps have tried in the past to manipulate his record, like this quite confirmed loss to Daniyar Abdibaev in 2016. Ruziboev is tough to put away, having not been finished since that video. It leads to a quandary of whether or not Ferreira will wear himself out beating on Ruziboev. Still, this is a hard ask for the 29-year-old who once trained at UZB Patriot, and before the final bell, Ferreira can violently stay on the path of one to watch at 185 pounds.

DOUBLE PLAY (-125)

Joanderson Brito-Westin Wilson Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-285)

Yana Santos-Karol Rosa Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-300)

There were many options for this time-based parlay, since some of the matchups on the billing provide odds that are untenable or at the very least not terribly valuable. In the first of these two fights, Brito finds himself as a comically prohibitive -1400 favorite on some books, as he takes on a 34-year-old in Wilson who has many pontificating about whether or not he will be up to the UFC level. Less than one year ago, Wilson walked right into a crushing left hand from the shell of Teruto Ishihara, and that is a visual some fans and experts may not soon forget. Even though he bounced back with three first-round submissions, tapping out the 8-22 Marcus Andrusia—who has 11 career submission losses—is not a particularly remarkable feat. Still, a stat of 16 finishes in his 16 wins is something to be wary of, even for this perceived mismatch. On the other side stands Brito, who put on a show in 2022 with a beatdown of Andre Fili and a quick tapout of Lucas Alexander. Even though Wilson is the rightful massive underdog, the fight game is a wild one, so banking on the fight ending before the midpoint of Round 2 might be a better one than pointing to a Brito smashing or a shocking Wilson upset.

While Brito-Wilson could be exceptionally violent for as long as it lasts, the same likely will not be said about Santos-Rosa. In their combined 15 UFC appearances, neither woman has claimed a post-fight bonus check of any type. Rosa has heard the final bell in all seven of her outings, and Santos has yet to procure a stoppage in her eight bouts. The woman formerly known as Yana Kunitskaya tends to start strong but has shown signs of slowing as her bouts progress, but it would be quite a surprise if she started strong enough to catch Rosa and put her down for the count. No woman has done that yet. The reason for the selection of the featherweight match going beyond 2:30 of Round 3 and not picking the decision is in part to the theme of an over and an under in this play. Also, the potential for Santos to fade enough for the Brazilian to pick up an accumulation-of-damage finish is gathered in that line without losing a great deal of value compared to the outright decision.

Blagoy Ivanov (+110)

In order to dredge up an underdog to point to, we find ourselves looking all the way to the bottom of the lineup. Although the aforementioned Santos has a shot at pulling off the decision win, the jury is still out on whether Mama Santos can add her name to the pantheon of great female fighters who started a family and came back to perform well. Combatants elsewhere on the card like Max Griffin or Benoit St. Denis have rough sledding ahead of them, although Luana Carolina could also pose a threat to the unbeaten Ivana Siric Petrovic. Instead, the underdog Ivanov gets the shine here, as he appears to have the skills necessary to fluster the offensively exhausting Alexander Romanov.

It was only a matter of time until Moldova’s Romanov would hit the wall where he could not simply walk someone down, grab hold of them and take them for a ride. There were glimpses of this against Juan Espino. But for a knee to Romanov’s groin, the wheels might have completely fallen off in that final round. The high-intensity throws, slams and movements work best in the opening frame, but that is not something where Ivanov is susceptible. The list of names the Bulgarian has faced have generally not been able to put him away, beyond a choke to top contender Alexander Volkov, and his chin is still very much able to take what the big men dish out. As the gas tanks begin to deplete, Ivanov appears to have that third gear to drive through the fatigue while Romanov completely folds. Ivanov, who is sharper on the feet and has a penchant for going the distance—his last eight fights, win or lose, have ended in the hands of the judges—can survive the early blitz and cruise to a decision win or potentially even a late stoppage.