Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 53 ‘Ribas vs. Namajunas’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday reaches its eighth consecutive weekend with an event in a drudging stretch that will carry into April. This will be the first show airing its main card on ESPN in 2024, with many more to come by the summer. Betting lines are close from top to bottom, with only two favorites above -200. Join the UFC on ESPN 53 edition of Prime Picks, where we hope for violence in the headliner, see signs for “there’s levels to this” showcases and hold our nose on a pair of heavyweight slogs.

Amanda Ribas-Rose Namajunas Last Under 4.5 Rounds (-145)

Many questions can be answered about both women in this flyweight five-round affair. How does Ribas fare after the third round? Can Namajunas land with enough power to keep Ribas off of her? Will the absence of coach Trevor Wittman in her corner be a detriment? Does this fight end before the final bell? The last of those is the subject of this first pick, which gives a decent line that this matchup does not go the distance. Both women possess finish rates in the 60% range, excellent grappling and improving striking. For Namajunas, boxing might be her best weapon at this point in her career, although it was not enough against Manon Fiorot. Whether on the feet or the mat, this fight should end before the final bell, and it does not matter who procures the finish as long as there is one.

The two ladies combine for a record below .500 for fights in the flyweight division. For Ribas, an ultra-close loss to Katlyn Cerminara is nothing to sneeze at, and Maycee Barber might be finally turning the corner towards contention. Against Virna Jandiroba and Viviane Araujo, Ribas attacked fearlessly, both with volume and confidence that the excellent ground game of her opponents would not overtake her. She was right in her gambles and showed she had a place at flyweight if she decided to stay there. It will not hurt that Ribas might look a little larger in the cage, even if she is the shorter woman. The Brazilian is defensively sound, so she can cause the other woman to make errors trying to land on her or take her down. When that happens, she has the finishing ability to take advantage of those lulls.

Former strawweight queen Namajunas has quick-strike ability—knocking out Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Weili Zhang is no easy feat—and can snatch an armbar out of nowhere. The former is where she would probably best ply her trade, with venomous strikes that can come from solid fundamentals just as likely as a head kick or spinning back fist. If grappling is an avenue to victory, Namajunas can pursue it, but if she has to fight on the feet, her opponent better have decent hands. As this match drags out into the later rounds, defenses tend to fade, and openings present themselves. Both can capitalize on such a moment, which may lead to this ending before the final scorecards are tallied.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-195)

Just shy of the -200 mark, there is still some value at the former ranked middleweight Shahbazyan. Shifting from Glendale Fighting Club to Xtreme Couture was one of the best decisions he could have made, as he had major weaknesses coming up that frequently saw him get blasted late. His cardio is still not up to par, but luckily for him, A.J. Dobson is also a first-round-or-bust type of fighter. The lone UFC win over Tafon Nchukwi for Dobson is not one that will likely age well, and it is a tough proposition that he will earn another if he concludes his four-fight deal at this event with a defeat. Shahbazyan has struggled the last few years, but the level of opposition has been top-15 across the board. Even as one of the heavier favorites on the lineup, Shahbazyan should likely be favored more, which gives a moneyline pick some value.

It remains to be seen what Dobson’s best asset is on the major stage, as he has been outclassed on the feet by Armen Petrosyan and wrangled on the mat by Jacob Malkoun. Dobson got over the hump and had his hand raised against an overweight Nchukwi by wrestling him to the mat in an extremely uneventful match. Still, it did not show whether he could do this against a superior adversary. Thus far, Shahbazyan has displayed significantly greater power, a real killer instinct to finish a fight and decent enough grappling chops to keep things interesting. His weakness remains the same, where he fades, and everything falls to pieces. As long as he is the hammer and not the nail, Shahbazyan can add a highlight to his reel.

Billy Quarantillo (-132)

At 35 years of age, the book may well be written about Quarantillo, a volume striker with a gas tank and durability to back it up. While lighter fighters tend to slow down once they hit this age, it can display as a cliff or something more gradual. In the case of “Billy Q,” his performance against Damon Jackson, where he bounced back in the later rounds to overwhelm Jackson, showed he is still clearly capable of pushing the pace until the bitter end. Quarantillo’s constant pressure can melt opponents, as evidenced by five stoppages in major organizations after the eight-minute mark. He might struggle when against a savvier striker, or one that can mix in numerous takedowns to throw Quarantillo off. Against a foe like Youssef Zalal, a kickboxer who has learned how to grapple, Quarantillo has a stylistic advantage that makes this betting line a good one by itself.

Zalal’s entire first UFC run spanned seven fights that all went to the final horn, and he hit a ceiling after facing Peter Barrett and never was able to right the ship. A trio of wins over regional-level opposition will not prepare him properly for the oncoming force, the unrelenting Quarantillo. Zalal will need to rely on Quarantillo, who is the far hittable man, and use his reach advantage to sting and slip away without allowing the Floridian to rev up his engines. When Quarantillo starts chaining punches together and getting in his groove, it will be in Zalal’s best interest to pursue level changes. Quarantillo’s defense on the feet is far from impregnable, and his defensive grappling is not stalwart, but he tries to make up for those deficiencies with pure offense. It will be a bad night if the returning Zalal is forced to trade on the feet.

DOUBLE PLAY (+110)

Karl Williams-Justin Tafa Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-165)

Michael Parkin-Mohammed Usman Lasts Over 1.5 Rounds (-325)

We wrap up this installment of our regular betting column by suggesting the worst: not one but two heavyweight overs. Of the two heavyweight encounters on the card, both are in minus territory when selecting a length beyond 1.5 rounds. One could easily and unsurprisingly be spoiled instantly with a mighty punch, while the other has all the makings of something that takes a while. For the former, late replacement Tafa—who is stepping in for younger brother in a true switcheroo—celebrates all but one of his pro victories before the midpoint of Round 2. His foe Williams has only lost once, but it came by submission in a way that Tafa is likely physically incapable of. Additionally, Williams tends to prevail on the scorecards more often than by knockout, so the two-piece can hit as long as the American keeps his head on a swivel for a while.

At heavyweight, anything can and often does happen. Lights can get switched off with one concussive blow. Bettors might feel safer with this particular over, but Usman and Parkin still maintain finish rates at 60% or higher—although they are trending downward. In their combined five UFC appearances, these two had gone to a decision four times, while Usman had the lone stoppage when he thumped undersized Zac Pauga in his promotional debut. It might all be for naught if one man gets on top and unleashes fight-ending ground-and-pound, but if their wrestling cancels out and they spent some time in the clinch, the required time will pass in a fight that will hopefully be over shortly after that mark.