Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 57 ‘Cannonier vs. Imavov’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship dives into the deep end of the Kentucky Judo Federation’s territory when it travels back to Louisville for the first time since Diego Sanchez and Martin Kampmann threw down in a “Fight of the Year” contender back in 2011. With a whopping 14 fights in tow, the promotion tries to bring something for everyone, including the betting faithful. Join the UFC on ESPN 57 edition of Prime Picks as we load up our cannons to fire at several plus-money plays along with a sure-fire shootout.

Jared Cannonier (+105)

The key number highlighted for every Cannonier fight in the last few years is his age. The former heavyweight is now 40 years old, and even though he competes at 185 pounds, a cliff remains ahead. Remarkably, “The Killa Gorilla” has shown little to no signs of that inevitable decline, as his pillar-to-post performance over Marvin Vettori last year might have been his best overall showing to date. The power is still in the Alaskan’s hands, but his timing, precision and unexpected speed have kept going strong. For his handiwork—wins over future champ Sean Strickland and top contender Vettori—Cannonier was awarded a fight much lower in the rankings against Nassourdine Imavov, a man he should be favored against. Based on recent encounters and established ceilings, it is almost shocking that the betting community does not favor him.

Since moving to 185 pounds in 2018, it has taken herculean efforts to surpass Cannonier in the cage. The only two to do so are former champ Robert Whittaker and then-kingpin Israel Adesanya, and there is no shame in coming up short to either of them. While some picture Cannonier as a one-dimensional striker who spams haymakers, his arsenal is more complicated and varied to the degree that it befuddles his foes. It does not hurt that when he does swing hard and connect, it makes a more lasting impression in the eyes of the judges than a few jabs and front kicks. It does not hurt that he celebrates a gas tank that can lob bombs for five hard rounds and not only seem fresh but can ramp things up as they progress. Against Strickland, the significant strike throw totals grew round-by-round until they surpassed 100 in Round 5.

The specific percentages on paper suggest this should be an even fight. The two middleweights sport a strikingly similar rate of significant strike lands; their accuracy is measured within 2% of one another, and Cannonier is a bit more hittable but not by much. They may differ more when it comes to grappling, but if fans are lucky, that will cancel out, and the two will duke it out from kickboxing range for the majority of their meeting. Where they deviate more substantially is someone not generally measured: power per strike. Imavov can sting opponents with his strikes but is generally not regarded as a heavy hitter, with no clean knockouts on his ledger. With “The Killa Gorilla,” their game plans can fall to pieces when he hits opponents flush. In a battle of floating like a butterfly vs. stunning like a murder hornet, the 40-year-old still should have that edge to get him by, whether by clipping the Frenchman or delivering the more memorable moments of impact after 25 minutes.

Ricky Turcios (+200)

This bantamweight contest was scheduled for seems like eons ago. Turcios was set to face Raul Rosas Jr. in February in a pivotal matchup in the youngster’s burgeoning career, as Rosas bounced back from his first pro loss in a big way against an outmatched Terrance Mitchell. The unbeaten shine of the 19-year-old is still gone after a thorough outworking at the hands of Christian Rodriguez less than a year ago, but that did not derail his career or stop him from wanting to learn. It might have relieved some of the pressure placed by his team, family, fans and himself. Speaking of pressure, his assignment in Turcios is the physical embodiment of that, and that might spell difficulty for a younger man who still has a lot to learn.

If rated like a video game skill system, with points for grappling, striking, etc., Rosas may stand above Turcios in many categories. Where he will fall short is in cardio and the ability to maintain a steady pace if he is not the one advancing. While Turcios may be a grappler first with fairly rudimentary striking—similar to his opponent—his high work rate on the feet makes up for some of his deficiencies when facing another fighter who cannot make him pay for those openings. For every minute that elapses in this matchup, confidence in a pick for the underdog should grow. Perhaps because Rosas has had a few extra months to develop and grow closer to his final physical form, he climbed from around -220 to -250. The value still resides on the Texan.

Brunno Ferreira Wins by TKO/KO (-150)

Even after getting shellacked by Nursulton Ruziboev in under 80 seconds, Ferreira’s strategy did not change much when he returned to the Octagon. Against Phil Hawes, the Brazilian was all gas, no brakes, other than him trying to back up some of his fastballs with sneaky level changes. When those did not work, he used pure muscle and chucked Hawes to the floor like a 185-pound sack of potatoes. The brute force approach should fluster Pennsylvanian grappler Dustin Stoltzfus, whose chin was thoroughly cracked by one kick in 2022. Stoltzfus did hold up well by bouncing back against Punahele Soriano, as he scored a knockdown rather than the other way around, but this might be a dangerous boost in confidence. Should Stoltzfus keep things on the feet for long, he may wake up staring at the lights.

If Stoltzfus wishes to secure the upset, he should push the pace early and hunt for his own takedowns to throw Ferreira off. It would not be in his best interest if he allowed Ferreira to lead the dance. Conceding takedowns from the musclebound brawler will also work to his disadvantage, and he should not try to play jiu-jitsu from his back in hopes of working through the oncoming bombardment of strikes to snatch up a limb. Ferreira has still not competed beyond the 6:08 mark of a fight, so if Stoltzfus can survive the early storm and keep things remotely competitive, he may see “The Hulk” start sucking wind fast. Before that happens, Ferreira—a fairly accurate slugger with a high work rate relative to how long he has spent in the Octagon—should be able to find the jaw and either put Stoltzfus down or get him on the ground and drum him out. A club-and-sub may be possible, but Stoltzfus’ grappling credentials may allow him to survive close calls.

Rayanne dos Santos vs. Puja Tomar Ends Inside Distance (+105)

Throughout this series, the over is often suggested for a women’s 115-pound encounter. It is not a slight against the ladies but a matter of numbers. The lighter divisions result in fewer finishes, regardless of gender, and it tends to trend linearly as they travel down in weight. The statistics out there, however, may not address the specific promotion or the quality of the competitors. Generally speaking, it holds true. Breaking from that trend should be the curtain jerker, as former Invicta Fighting Championships atomweight queen dos Santos battles diminutive ex-atomweight Tomar. A finish should occur based on how they pair up against one another.

Both women sport finish rates of 71% or higher, but this can partially be attributed to low-level opposition on regional circuits such as Benevides Combat or the dilapidated Super Fight League. Dos Santos prefers to get the job done via submission, with her primary move being the armbar. Her foe, Tomar, has succumbed to multiple armbars in the past, and it remains a question of whether her frame, measuring anywhere from 4-foot-9 to 5-foot-1 and 59” wingspan, makes her more susceptible to these limb attacks. In her own right, the Indian woman known as “Cyclone” rightfully earned that nickname because of the ferocity of her attacks, as she tends to throw caution to the wind and let the chips fall where they may. This has backfired against more composed opposition like Stamp Fairtex and Tiffany Teo. Dos Santos could just as quickly take advantage of openings and put Tomar in a bad spot as she could leave her guard down and get cracked by the deceptive power of the more petite woman. Both avenues would result in a referee needing to get involved, which is all that matters here.