Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 62 ‘Cannonier vs. Borralho’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will not put anywhere near its best foot forward with its latest showcase inside the UFC Apex on Saturday in Las Vegas, even with it serving as the finale of the recent season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Head-scratching signings and ludicrous lines litter the lineup for UFC on ESPN 62, with immediate divisional relevance light compared to other shows. Join this latest edition of Prime Picks, where we cannot resist a trio of compelling underdogs capable of stunning the masses and their favored opponents.

Jared Cannonier (+210)

Cannonier has not been an underdog of this magnitude since he fought for the 185-pound throne against Israel Adesanya. Against “The Last Stylebender,” it was no surprise he clocked in with odds over +400, as the stylistic matchup significantly favored the incumbent champ. When a fastball pitcher like Cannonier steps on the mound, he will let those cutters and sinkers fly as long as he is not out. Against the top-tier adversaries in his weight class, he has not scored the dramatic knockout he seeks. Still, when he throws down with southpaw and willing striker Caio Borralho, he has as much chance at landing flush as the Brazilian.

There is something in the water at the surging Fighting Nerds camp, with their comical glasses but incredible run of recent success that is anything but laughable. Much like an elite coach in the vein of Trevor Wittman or Marc Montoya, this team has taken already skilled fighters and leveled them up in new, dazzling ways. When looking at names like Jean Silva, Mauricio Ruffy, Carlos Prates or Borralho, every one shows a ferociousness and unflappability to shine even when the odds are against them. Borralho has hammered through his opposition, with an unbeaten streak dating back to his second professional outing in 2015. It is not just his punching power, submission prowess or any single facet of his game that makes him special; it’s how he blends them all together to become a fearsome force in his division.

Despite his advanced age and plenty of miles, Cannonier still competes at the highest levels. Two judges had Cannonier ahead on the scorecards heading into the fourth round against Nassourdine Imavov. In the fourth frame, Cannonier was put down for the first time in his tenure at middleweight, with one shot to the temple spelling his undoing. It was a losing effort, stifling the momentum he gained en route to another crack at gold, but it was also another assurance that Cannonier can push the pace through the third round. This cannot be said about Borralho. Cannonier possesses plenty of experience in five-round affairs, which can give him an edge unless he gets blasted. It remains to be seen if Borralho can keep up the pace for 25 hard-fought minutes, especially when facing a heavy hitter like Cannonier. With plenty of unanswered questions about Borralho looming and a proven contender on the marquee against him, an outright moneyline for the favorite might not be the best bet. Instead, Cannonier as a live underdog is very much in play.

Neil Magny (+600)

Even at 37, Magny remains perhaps the ultimate trap fight in the welterweight division. With the ability to utilize his extensive cardio as a weapon, remarkable durability and a crafty skill set, he can frustrate all but the best of his adversaries. Going through his ledger the last decade, there is no loss the longtime veteran has suffered that would be considered an aberration. Even if he cannot get over the hump into the Top 10 for long, he has shown time and time again to be the perfect foil to spoil the party of a promising up-and-comer. There is no question that Michael Morales is a skilled and capable young man, with wins over names like James Matthews and Trevin Giles highlighted on a resume with no blemishes. However, coming in at nearly -1000 against a talent like Magny disrespects the perennial contender, and there is value on “The Haitian Sensation” as the huge underdog.

A whole 12 years younger, the Ecuadorian trains out of the blossoming Entram Gym and is shaping up to be a top-notch fighter. Not only does he have fast hands and pop in his punches, but Morales possesses an in-fight wisdom beyond his years. Morales makes smart decisions to keep himself out of danger while not overextending himself when he senses an opening. A wide variety of strikes keeps opponents guessing, and he has the gas tank to go three hard rounds, as evidenced by his exciting encounter with Matthews in November. The step up in competition is reasonable, especially compared to the main attraction, but it is a tricky matchup to overcome. Magny can fight at range but prefers to get up close and personal, and he can play the bully if he is not outworked. Even with Morales the expected victor, a flier at these odds is a no-brainer.

DOUBLE PLAY (-164)

Angela Hill-Tabatha Ricci Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-550)

Josiane Nunes-Jacqueline Cavalcanti Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-275)

The stat of the week is a harrowing one: In 2024, women in the UFC have finished under 25%—24.6%, to be exact—of their fights. That rate has been falling for the last few years, never reaching the depth it is at now. Compared it to all-female Invicta Fighting Championships organization, where ladies have earned a bit over 40% of their victories inside the distance. Ten of the last 11 women’s bouts in the Octagon have heard the final bell. Neither of the women in the second part of this two-piece have strongly contributed to lifting that number in their respective careers. Hill has earned 25% of her UFC wins by stoppage, while Ricci has heard the final bell in four of five triumphs. Beyond one guillotine choke for Hill, neither woman has inspired confidence recently that this one will exclude the judges.

If there is a more likely bout to break up this small parlay, it would be either Nunes or Cavalcanti plunking the other. These two bantamweights with significantly different builds hold zero submissions while sporting knockout rates of 50% or higher. Even with numbers like those hanging overhead, that stopping power has largely dwindled since facing improved opposition. Nunes lighting up the 0-7 Laisa Coimbra or 0-1 Juliana Araujo does not move the needle, nor does Cavalcanti clobbering a woman in Yulia Kutsenko, who currently sits at 5-10 with eight stoppage losses. As the strength of schedule went up, Nunes and Cavalcanti found their foes sturdier and more willing to fight back. Against one another, it is not likely that one countrywoman will claim the first stoppage win against the other. The overall finish rate of ladies in the promotion may continue to plummet, with these bouts not likely boosting it.

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+400)

Stop us if you’ve heard this: Meerschaert is in every fight unless you put him out early or stay wary of his traps. “GM3” is not an unbeatable opponent, but he is a gritty and intelligent competitor who can instantly capitalize on an open moment. Meerschaert does not fight like he is paid by the hour and would much rather grab hold of a submission and crank it until someone falls asleep. The finish rate for the Wisconsin native has risen since joining the promotion in 2016, with all 11 of his wins in the Octagon coming inside the distance. If the Kill Cliff Fight Club-based fighter gets his hand raised in his latest assignment, it will be because he got the better of Edmen Shahbazyan and put him away.

Formerly of Glendale Fighting Club, the book was seemingly written on young middleweight upstart Shahbazyan after about a half dozen performances in the UFC. Able to push the pace right out of the cage, he could steamroll unaware opponents and blaze through them in minutes. However, if that blitz failed and he fought beyond the first round, his energy reserves depleted fast. Since switching to Xtreme Couture, it still does not appear that he has shored up that vulnerability. As long as he does not get blasted in the first three minutes of the matchup, Meerschaert is the kind of guy to take advantage of a fatiguing Shahbazyan and make him pay for slipping up.