The Bottom Line: A Tale of Two Title Fights

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In an era of meaningless interim championships and confused divisions, UFC 235 on Saturday features a pair of genuine title fights that would be recognizable as such at any point in the sport’s history. Jon Jones and Tyron Woodley are nearly unanimously regarded as the best fighters in their respective weight classes and rank among the sport’s pound-for-pound elite. They will both be looking to extend their dominance on what is the deepest fight card thus far this year.

While those are the similarities between the title fights for Woodley and Jones, the differences between the two bouts are more pronounced. Woodley faces a dangerous challenger who enters the fight on the ninth-longest winning streak in UFC history. Kamaru Usman is younger than the champion, with greater reach and the best wrestling of any Woodley opponent in quite some time. Woodley is only a narrow favorite, even after he scored arguably the most dominant win of his career, shutting down formerly unbeaten Darren Till in every facet of fighting.

It has become difficult to pick against Woodley as he accumulates win after win against top-flight opposition. Few fighters in the sport are harder to look good against than Woodley. However, Usman has been on a similar path, winning over doubters not through flash and style but through shutting down and negating the strengths of his opponents. Woodley-Usman isn’t a big box office fight, but it’s a worthy test for a great champion.

By contrast, Anthony Smith will enter his fight against Jones with few true believers. Smith himself seems like one of the few who thinks he will win. Even with Jones’ inactivity in recent years and the general sense that he is not as good as he was from 2011-15, Jones enters this fight as a heavier favorite than just about any other fight of his career. The journeyman veteran getting his one big shot makes for a nice story, but there’s widespread certitude about how the story ends.

The skepticism about Smith is understandable. Smith has received this title shot in large part because of the unprecedented hollowing out of the Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight division. What was once the sport’s marquee division is now one of its thinnest. Smith strung together a win streak at the right time -- assisted by the decline of name opponents Mauricio Rua and Rashad Evans -- but it still only reached three. Over the course of his career, Smith has few wins over top fighters in their prime, and he has been stopped a remarkable 12 times by knockout or submission against largely marginal opposition. This isn’t the resume you’d expect from the fighter to hand Jones his first real loss.

While a win by Smith would be one of the more stunning upsets in UFC history, it has more similar antecedents than one might expect. When the UFC pairs together two title fights on the same card, it often fits the pattern of UFC 235, with one title fight perceived to be close and another title fight thought to be more imbalanced. The perceived blowout is hidden by its proximity to a fight thought to be closer, and it isn’t as much of a problem were it being asked to carry a card on its own.

A funny thing about the “tough” title defense-“easy” title defense setup is that it has often led to surprises in the defense expected to be easy. At UFC 92, Rashad Evans-Forrest Griffin for the light heavyweight title was considered basically a toss-up, while Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was a sizeable favorite in defending the UFC interim heavyweight title against Frank Mir. Nogueira was thought to have competed against a higher level of competition of Pride Fighting Championships than Mir in the UFC. Mir, of course, handed the seemingly indestructible Nogueira the first knockout loss of his career, and Nogueira’s aura would never be quite the same.

UFC 217 featured three title defenses, as the promotion put its best foot forward for its second Madison Square Garden event. Two of those title fights were thought to be close: Michael Bisping defending the middleweight title against Georges St. Pierre and Cody Garbrandt meeting T.J. Dillashaw for the bantamweight crown. The third title fight was thought to be the blowout: Joanna Jedrzejczyk looking for her sixth successful strawweight title defense against Rose Namajunas. Indeed, the women’s fight ended the quickest of the three title bouts, but it did not go as expected. Namajunas’ quick technical knockout of Jedrzejczyk changed the trajectory of both their careers.

The Staples Center hosted the same setup at UFC 227. Dillashaw-Garbrandt was again a close fight to bet on, while a lighter-weight champion defended as a heavy favorite. Again, that favorite fell, as Demetrious Johnson finally lost his flyweight title to current champion Henry Cejudo; the much slighter favorite, Dillashaw, held serve against Garbrandt.

This pattern has repeated itself plenty of other times. B.J. Penn was an overwhelming favorite against Frankie Edgar at UFC 112, even more than Anderson Silva was against Demian Maia. Silva was successful, while Penn fell. Dominick Cruz held off Urijah Faber at UFC 199 as the favorite, while the much stronger favorite Luke Rockhold fell in explosive fashion to Bisping.

There are logical reasons to expect major title upsets are more apt to happen on cards with other more prominent title defenses. The title fight that is expected to be closer attracts media and fan attention, allowing the challenger to fly under the radar and focus on his or her fight. The champion in turn is apt to take the fight less seriously than if they’re the clear main event and subsequently facing more intense focus. It’s not unlike a sports team that loses a trap game waiting for a different game that is getting more attention. Usman seems like the much more likely challenger to win this weekend, but history is not entirely against Smith.

Todd Martin has written about mixed martial arts since 2002 for a variety of outlets, including CBSSports.com, SI.com, ESPN.com, the Los Angeles Times, MMApayout.com, Fight Magazine and Fighting Spirit Magazine. He has appeared on a number of radio stations, including ESPN affiliates in New York and Washington, D.C., and HDNet’s “Inside MMA” television show. In addition to his work at Sherdog.com, he does a weekly podcast with Wade Keller at PWTorch.com and blogs regularly at LaTimes.com. Todd received his BA from Vassar College in 2003 and JD from UCLA School of Law in 2007 and is a licensed attorney. He has covered UFC, Pride, Bellator, Affliction, IFL, WFA, Strikeforce, WEC and K-1 live events. He believes deeply in the power of MMA to heal the world and bring happiness to all of its people.