The Bottom Line: Conor McGregor-Nate Diaz 2 Makes All the Sense in the World
Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.
When reports emerged late last week that the Ultimate Fighting Championship was targeting a Conor McGregor-Nate Diaz rematch for the main event at UFC 200, the initial general reaction was one of surprise. McGregor’s submission defeat at the hands of Diaz had seemed to close the door for the time being on the Irishman fighting at higher weight classes. Moreover, Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar are waiting for their rightful shots at McGregor’s featherweight title, and the discussion after UFC 196 had focused on those two names as the prospective opponents for McGregor at UFC 200. The news that a Diaz rematch was on tap was a surprise. In spite of that, the choice is one that makes more and more sense the longer it is considered.
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No matter how well the first fight does, it’s always difficult to sell a rematch when nobody believes it will turn out differently. However, that’s not the case here. Diaz put away McGregor emphatically and without a full training camp, so there will clearly be many who think he will win the rematch. On the other hand, McGregor was getting the better of the fight before Diaz turned the tide in the middle of the second round. McGregor landed more often and with more power in the first and was even more successful in the first half of round two before Diaz rocked him. It’s clearly a dangerous fight for McGregor, but there’s reason for his supporters to believe that he can take the rematch if he fights more carefully.
The fighters are also going to sell the fight in a major way.
McGregor’s trash talk directed at Diaz generated tremendous late
interest in their first encounter, but it was weakened somewhat by
the fact Diaz didn’t seem to answer back with full confidence. He
knew he was taking the fight on short notice and that it was
possible he wouldn’t do well. Now, with a full camp and a previous
win behind him, Diaz and his supporters will be in full 209 mode,
and that’s always guaranteed entertainment. McGregor’s supporters
aren’t going to be too shy on the other side, either.
Another advantage to McGregor-Diaz 2 over McGregor-Edgar or McGregor-Aldo 2 is that the story of the fight is about McGregor rather than his opponent. McGregor’s success as a drawing card has followed a consistent pattern: McGregor looking to prove himself. That came against increasingly difficult competition at featherweight until he captured the title. When he did that, he found another hill to climb at lightweight. The speculation was that he planned to do so again at welterweight. The story continually revolved around McGregor, the star, as the protagonist.
When McGregor lost to Diaz, he could no longer continue to chase after new titles. A lightweight or welterweight title fight was unrealistic. Thus, the thought was that he would move back down to featherweight to defend what he already won. The story would then become about his opponent, about whether Aldo could get his revenge or whether Edgar could capture gold in a second weight class. McGregor would become the antagonist in someone else’s story. By fighting Diaz again instead, the story shifts back to McGregor. It’s about McGregor’s quest, gunning for revenge from his first UFC loss.
McGregor is a smart self-promoter, and he understands how to capture the public’s imagination. By continuing to chase new goals, it makes every fight of crucial importance. It’s the same reason that boxers often keep moving up in weight class. Rafael dos Anjos may have been a tougher opponent and less of a star than Edgar or Aldo, but the story would have been about McGregor’s quest, not Aldo’s or Edgar’s. McGregor wants the spotlight continually on himself, and after losing to Diaz, there was only one fight where the spotlight wouldn’t shift over to his opponent. Diaz is just defending what he already accomplished; McGregor is the one fighting for his reputation.
The fight also protects McGregor. This may seem counterintuitive, as the instant reaction among many was to discuss how much McGregor loses if he falls to Diaz again. The key is that McGregor already tested out his response to such a situation when he lost the first time, and it worked pretty well. He humbly noted that he moved up in weight class, challenged himself and fell short. If he loses to Diaz again, he can say the exact same thing, and he’s already seen that the public will react positively to him. He can then move back down to featherweight to defend his title just like he would have against Edgar or Aldo at UFC 200. It’s not a bad situation for McGregor, fighting outside his division against an opponent who already beat him anyway.
That’s not to say there aren’t negatives to the fight. For one, it comes in the midst of a deluge of rematches. If Diaz-McGregor is finalized, it would mean four rematches in the next four UFC pay-per-views: Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier 2 at UFC 197, Luke Rockhold-Chris Weidman 2 and Dominick Cruz-Urijah Faber 3 at UFC 199 and Diaz-McGregor 2 at UFC 200. That’s a bit much for those with rematch fatigue, and the McGregor-Diaz rematch would come at the end when fans are likely most ready for some fresh title fights.
There’s also the negative that Aldo and Edgar will unfortunately have to wait even longer for their rightful shots at the featherweight crown. Aldo dominated his division for so long that he’s right to lobby for an immediate rematch. Edgar earned his own shot with five straight high-quality wins. It’s unfortunate if they have to wait longer and the featherweight division is left in further limbo.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it is becoming increasingly inescapable that McGregor plays by his own set of rules and is able to dictate the matchmaking for his fights in a way no other fighters can. McGregor got to fight for an interim featherweight title at UFC 189 when Aldo was ready to defend the undisputed belt just four months later. Meanwhile, Edgar and Aldo could end up waiting a year for McGregor, and it seems unlikely an interim title is on the way. McGregor holds enough power that he is able to dictate terms, but it benefits neither the “Notorious” one nor the UFC for fans to perceive that’s what is occurring. The Diaz rematch is an invitation for that sort of criticism.
While those are real concerns, they are overwhelmed by the reasons in favor of making the rematch. It’s the biggest fight of the three on a show that needs the biggest fights possible. It will generate plenty of fan interest and discussion about which way the rematch goes, even if it doesn’t necessarily feel like it the closer we are to the jarring first fight. It’s also the best fight for McGregor, not an inconsequential factor when it comes to his fight selection. There may be initial resistance to the idea, but that’s likely to fade into a distant memory as UFC 200 draws near. Diaz-McGregor 2 is absolutely the right call.
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