The Bottom Line: Mystic Mac’s Miracle Round

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Conor McGregor has lived what feels like a charmed MMA existence. During his rapid ascent into superstardom, it seems like everything has broken right for the Irishman. That’s not to diminish his hard work, intelligence and skill, but MMA is not a sport that lends itself to storybook endings. Things have a way of working out for McGregor in ways that they just don’t seem to work out for other fighters. That never felt truer than during the fourth round of his rematch with Nate Diaz -- one of the most improbable rounds in the history of the sport.

MMA has a way of turning quickly. There are so many ways to win that an advantage doesn’t necessarily last for long. Mirko Filipovic was destroying Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in Pride Fighting Championships, but there was always the possibility that the fight would shift if Nogueira got it to the ground. When Nogueira did just that and pulled off the submission, it was a remarkable 180-degree turn in the course of the fight, but it was the sort of turn that happens in MMA. The same goes for Miesha Tate’s submission of Holly Holm in the fifth round of a fight she was handily losing or Anderson Silva’s submission of Chael Sonnen at UFC 117. They were shocking but logical given the fighters involved. McGregor pulling out the win over Diaz felt like something else.

Early in the rematch between “Mystic Mac” and Diaz at UFC 202 on Saturday in Las Vegas, McGregor looked like he was going to avenge his loss without a great deal of difficulty. McGregor’s leg kicks were doing great damage and slowing down Diaz. His punches knocked down Diaz and busted up his face. McGregor also seemed to be consciously pacing himself more than in the first fight. It looked like clear sailing for the Irishman.

Then, about eight minutes into the fight, it was déjà vu all over again. Diaz sensed McGregor was tiring, just like around the same point in their first fight. He began picking up the pace and landing big shots on McGregor. If the end of the second round went badly for McGregor, the third round was a disaster. Diaz dominated the round to the point that many scored it 10-8 for the Stockton, California, native. McGregor returned to his corner in what felt like a Maynardian nightmare. For the second straight time against the same opponent, it looked like he was going to handily win, only for victory to be snatched from him in what felt like the same exact manner.

In order to win the fight, McGregor not only needed to survive 10 minutes against an opponent who looked much fresher than him and had finished him under the same circumstances in the first fight. No, McGregor needed to find a way to actually win one of those two rounds, as well. The problem wasn’t just that Diaz had won the third round handily; it was that it looked like McGregor had completely emptied his gas tank. Sitting on his stool between rounds, McGregor looked positively exhausted and his usually supremely confident face seemed to betray a sense of grave concern. His corner’s instructions reflected the same.

There was nothing that pointed to McGregor doing well in the fourth round. His opponent was taking over the fight in the exact same way he had just six months ago. His margin of error was low, as a single takedown would put him in even bigger trouble than the standup nightmare of the third. Yet the minute of respite ended and the Irish miracle man went out and did just that. McGregor’s frequent glances at the time and circling out indicated he was still very tired, but he willed himself to winning the decisive round and avenging his first Ultimate Fighting Championship loss.

If McGregor’s crucial fourth round win wasn’t precipitated by a surge in energy, what happened? Perhaps the cuts above Diaz’s eyes played a key role by affecting his vision, as he needed to wipe away the blood frequently. Perhaps Diaz spent too much energy in the third round, and it caught up with him in the fourth. Perhaps McGregor’s leg kicks added up and slowed down Diaz. Perhaps an overconfident Diaz became complacent or perhaps the exact opposite occurred and Diaz thought he was playing with house money by not being finished as he suggested in his post-fight interview. Maybe all of that speculation is pointed in the wrong direction and the fourth round was primarily about McGregor summoning up the will to win in the midst of extreme exhaustion.

Whatever the reasons for McGregor’s fourth-round surge, it will stand out for years to come as a career-defining moment for the current UFC featherweight champion. There was every reason to believe things were about to fall apart for McGregor, and instead, he pulled out a legacy win about which he can be proud. For any other fighter, it would seem even more unlikely. For McGregor, it feels almost preordained that things will come up roses in the end.