UFC 179 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Aldo vs. Mendes 2
Jose
Aldo and Chad Mendes will meet for a second time. | Photo: Gleidson
Venga/Sherdog.com
It was not long ago that Brazil seemed to have a stranglehold on Ultimate Fighting Championship gold, its denizens sitting atop the bantamweight, featherweight, middleweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions. Now, pound-for-pound stalwart Jose Aldo is the lone torchbearer for Brazil, carrying both the hopes of his country and the longest active winning streak of all UFC champions into his seventh title defense against Chad Mendes in the UFC 179 main event on Saturday at Maracanazinho Gymnasium in Rio de Janeiro.
Meanwhile, Mendes looks to avenge his only loss and make the UFC championship picture a clean sweep for the Red, White and Blue. “Money” has amassed a five-fight winning streak of his own since colliding with Aldo’s knee at UFC 142. That loss appears to have been a turning point in his career. With only one finish in six fights leading up to his first title shot, Mendes has turned that criticism on its head by finishing four of his last five before the closing bell. To add to the narrative, this will be the fifth UFC championship pairing between Nova Uniao and Team Alpha Male in the last two years, with the Brazilian camp holding a 3-1 head-to-head advantage in those fights. Throw in some recent performance-enhancing drug accusations and this is one of the more intriguing storylines heading into a UFC card in some time.
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As far as anthropometrics are concerned, the only difference that jumps out is the Brazilian’s four-inch reach advantage. In their first fight, Aldo utilized his reach to control the distance and pace of the fight, which was crucial in nullifying Mendes’ athleticism. Indeed, 11 of the Californian’s 13 significant strikes that landed were leg kicks, indicative of his difficulty closing the distance.
While Aldo’s finishing rate is more impressive, Mendes takes that category under the lens of “What have you done for me lately?” Aldo finished seven of his eight World Extreme Cagefighting fights but has seen the judges in four of his six UFC bouts. On the other hand, Mendes only finished one of his four WEC fights but has finished his UFC opponents four times in his seven victories. While Mendes has been the busier fighter since their first encounter, he has also faced statistically weaker opposition by a non-ignorable margin. The key here is the layoff. Aldo has not only had less time off since his last fight but has also spent more time in the hospital -- first with a neck injury that postponed the rematch from its original August booking and more recently with kidney stones. Come fight time, we will see how those hiccups affect his performance, if at all.
Enough with the speculation. Let us see how the striking data
stacks up:
That Aldo lands more significant strikes per round while being less accurate belies an important facet of the striking matchup: He is much, much busier on the feet. Under the Zuffa banner, “Scarface” averages 10 more significant strike attempts per round, for a total of 771 more significant strikes attempted and 302 more that reached their target. Said differently, Aldo has had more significant strikes connect than Mendes has even attempted, despite having only two more fights in the WEC and UFC. Not surprisingly, this impressive disparity also results in Aldo eating almost two more strikes per round. However, as the identical striking defense percentage indicates, Aldo absorbs more against opponents who are throwing more at him, meaning he evades more shots, as well. Consequently, Mendes’ superior accuracy statistics on paper do not necessarily translate into advantages in the Octagon; they are most likely slightly inflated due to small sample sizes. Needless to say, “Money” is still dangerous standing up, even if the numbers exaggerate the positive shading a little.
Aldo also holds the knockdown advantage comfortably. Half of Mendes’ knockdowns came against opponents with sub-.500 UFC records; perhaps more ominous is that one of Aldo’s seven knockdowns came against Mendes in their first fight, which directly led into the fight-ending flurry of ground strikes. Predictably, Aldo’s superior reach plays a pivotal role here. Historically, fighters with similar reach differentials win slightly more than half of the time against their shorter-armed peers. That number leaps to almost two-thirds when adjusted for fighters who spend 70 percent or more of the fight on the feet -- a category into which Aldo falls. In the first fight, Mendes struggled to close the gap, only attaining the clinch position when the Brazilian was the aggressor. While Mendes is no slouch in the standup game, he will have the burden of history to overcome if he is to make it through Aldo’s active, rangy grip on the featherweight belt.
Primarily, Mendes will have to utilize his wrestling prowess. Here is how the fight looks on the mat:
In this case, the figures are not nearly as deceptive as they are for the striking data. Mendes, an NCAA All-American wrestler, is not surprisingly the more active grappler, averaging close to six times the amount of takedown attempts per round. With a 60-percent success rate, “Money” is on the higher end of the spectrum for takedown efficiency in the UFC, especially considering how many shots he takes. Similarly, Mendes advances position and attempts submissions more frequently. When Aldo decides to shoot, he is generally effective, and with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Andre Pederneiras in tow, he is capable of being equally vicious on the ground. Although Aldo has only attempted takedowns in four different fights, two of those were his most recent wins over Ricardo Lamas and Chan Sung Jung. This could be a telling trend if it holds true, as the Nova Uniao product is continuing to add to his game. Just how effective he will be in taking down Mendes is another story, as nobody has been able to do so yet.
Of the two featherweights, only Mendes has notched a submission victory on the big stage. Granted, it was four years ago against a man who has suffered 70 percent of his defeats by submission. Aldo’s only true submission win was in 2005 under the Shooto banner -- in his third professional fight. His only submission loss came later that year, and since both men have posted flawless submission defense records in the UFC, this fight ending with a tap or nap is numerically the unlikeliest scenario. In fact, nobody in the WEC or UFC has ever tried to -- or even been in realistic position to -- submit Aldo. Mark Hominick remains the only man who could have potentially attempted a submission, as he was the sole opponent to advance ground position on Aldo; alas, he did not. Though a dominant position is not a requirement to attempt a submission, most of the time Aldo is sitting in his opponents’ guard and they are too busy being punched in the face to throw around their hips.
Therein lies the quandary for Mendes. Clearly, he is the superior wrestler, but can he take the fight down? With an average of three shots a round and a 60-percent success rate, he should be able to, but his 0-for-7 mark in the first fight with Aldo says otherwise. When he had the clinch, he came close a few times, and if it were not for a timely fence grab from the Brazilian, the fight might have gone down much differently. That should be encouraging for “Money,” especially with the improvements he has made in his standup. He will need to utilize his explosiveness to mix it up on the feet if he hopes to drag Aldo into his world -- a daunting proposition, to say the least.
THE FINAL WORD
This is a close fight, perhaps even closer than the oddsmakers have tabulated. Aldo is the favorite at -230 to Mendes’ +190, with most of that difference likely attributable to the first-round finish from their first encounter at UFC 142. In truth, it was a fairly even affair until it ended in spectacular fashion, which can be interpreted in two ways. You could say it was lucky, in a sense, or you could say that even a marginal error can become a lights-out mistake against Aldo. Both fighters have clear advantages in the rematch. The problem for Mendes is that the fight begins on the feet, and it has been a nearly insurmountable challenge for most fighters to change the scenery against Aldo and take it to the ground.
National pride is also on the line; since the UFC came under Zuffa control, Brazilians hold a narrow 20-18 edge against Americans in championship bouts. Can Mendes bring America one step closer to an equalizer, or will history rhyme with his first fight against the mauler from Manaus?
Raw data for the analysis was provided by and in partnership with FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton, FightMetric and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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