Preview: UFC 281 Prelims

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s annual November trip to Madison Square Garden in New York is always a highlight of the calendar. UFC 281 on Saturday is no exception, and it brings a load of relevant and action-packed prelims to the table. The featured spot is all about violence, as Brad Riddell and Renato Carneiro have each made careers out of dishing out and absorbing hellacious amounts of punishment. There are some huge individual stakes in the next two bouts: Former light heavyweight title challenger Dominick Reyes meets Ryan Spann and looks to break a surprising multi-year skid, while Erin Blanchfield looks to prove her top prospect credentials against a Molly McCann in career-best form. When fights like Matt Frevola-Ottman Azaitar and Julio Arce-Montel Jackson are on the early undercard and the scheduling does not feel like a huge error, the UFC has done well by the New York faithful.

Now to the preview for the UFC 281 “Adesanya vs. Pereira” prelims:

Lightweights

Renato Carneiro (16-5-1, 8-5 UFC) vs. Brad Riddell (10-3, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Carneiro (-120), Riddell (+100)

Riddell suddenly finds himself in a crucial spot. New Zealand’s “Quake” came to the UFC in 2019 as the latest kickboxing convert poised for success, particularly after debuting with an all-out war against Jamie Mullarkey. Riddell has found himself prone to slow starts, seemingly feeling his way into fights by eating a ton of his opponent’s offense. Gutsy wins over Magomed Mustafaev and Drew Dober seemed to suggest that the Kiwi may just be tough enough to keep outlasting his opponents all the way up the ladder. Then his last two fights happened. Former teammate Rafael Fiziev never let go of his early lead and knocked Riddell senseless in the third round, and he never even got out of the gate against Jalin Turner in July. Turner quickly plugged Riddell and found a guillotine choke submission in just 45 seconds. It seemed like Riddell was part of the lightweight division’s future just a year ago, but he badly needs some momentum heading into this bout against Carneiro. After an injury-riddled start to his UFC career, Carneiro suddenly became a featherweight contender to watch with a 2017 win over Jeremy Stephens, showing a striking game that allowed him to easily outmaneuver and frustrate the longtime veteran. The Brazilian did well to take apart Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson during the rest of his 145-pound run, but he also clearly found himself outgunned when it came to getting over the hump to contender status. Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung managed to bite down and quickly take Carneiro out of his preferred fight for a knockout. That prompted a move up to lightweight in 2020 that has been solid, even if it has not changed Carneiro’s overall fortunes much. He has pivoted a bit more to his wrestling and grappling for wins over Damir Hadzovic and Jai Herbert, but his own one-sided knockout loss to Fiziev affirmed that he may just have an athletic ceiling. To Carneiro’s credit, 2022 has seen him shake off the last of any questions about his toughness. He overcame a weak start against Alexander Hernandez in February, then turned around to take on Rafael dos Anjos three weeks later. Carneiro admittedly took a beating for the better part of five rounds but still showed an impressive unwillingness to quit. Both men are prone to slow starts, but Carneiro feels much likelier to get things done early, enough so that it would not be a shock if he follows in Turner’s footsteps with a quick club-and-sub. However, assuming Riddell survives the early going, this should turn into an absolute war as the Kiwi heats up. A late Riddell stoppage win is not out of the question given the power that he can pack, but Carneiro’s last few performances have earned him enough benefit of the doubt to bet that he hangs on until the final horn, provided the dos Anjos loss was not a career-altering battering. The pick is Carneiro via narrow decision.

Jump To »
Reyes vs. Spann
Blanchfield vs. McCann
Petroski vs. Turman
Azaitar vs. Frevola
Kowalkiewicz vs. Juarez
Choi vs. Trizano
Jackson vs. Arce
Ulberg vs. Negumereanu