Preview: UFC Fight Night 200 Main Card

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship after a week off heads back to the UFC Apex for what figures to be an enjoyable night of mixed martial arts competition on Saturday in Las Vegas. In terms of stakes and name value, this card revolves around the main event—a middleweight showdown between Jack Hermansson and Sean Strickland that offers some intrigue on paper and could serve as a springboard to title contention for the latter. Beyond that, action reigns over mostly everything else, led by a compelling Shavkat Rakhmonov-Carlston Harris welterweight confrontation and a bit of guaranteed entertainment between featherweight veterans Julian Erosa and Steven Peterson.

Now to the UFC Fight Night 200 preview:

Middleweights

#6 MW | Jack Hermansson (22-6, 9-4 UFC) vs. #7 MW | Sean Strickland (24-3, 11-3 UFC)

ODDS: Strickland (-210), Hermansson (+175)

Strickland has been a revelation since he moved up to 185 pounds, and it will be interesting to see if he can make it all the way to title contention in his new weight class. Debuting in the UFC as a welterweight in 2014, Strickland became a bit of a hardcore favorite, adopting a patient and counter-heavy style that was technically sound if not obviously entertaining. However, it was successful. “Tarzan” won a lot more than he lost, and his three defeats to Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos have all aged particularly well. After rebounding from the Zaleski dos Santos loss with a win over Nordine Taleb in 2018, it looked like Strickland’s career might suddenly come to an end. He suffered a major knee injury in a motorcycle accident that left him out of action for over two years and needing to move up to middleweight upon his return. Over the last year and a half, Strickland has honed a much more high-volume and bullying style, marching down his opponents and using the opportunity to constantly talk trash during these quieter Apex events. After racking up three straight wins at middleweight, Strickland got his first UFC main event against Uriah Hall. He quickly got the ball rolling to a dominant win, drowning Hall in volume and pressure without eating a knockout in return. Up next is another move up the ladder, and a win here against Hermansson figures to hurdle Strickland into true contention within the division.

Well-regarded when he came to the UFC, Hermansson also had a solid but unspectacular start to his career in the company, getting by with an awkward striking game before suddenly pivoting to become a ground-and-pound specialist. Hermansson put together some wins, but it was still a bit of a surprise when he got a big co-main slot on a 2019 card against David Branch, then still considered a potential contender. Hermansson found a submission victory in just 49 seconds, which put “The Joker” in position for the biggest fight of his career, stepping in on four weeks’ turnaround as a late replacement main-eventer against Ronaldo Souza. Hermansson was the clear underdog going in, but he instead started what has turned out to be a career-ending slide for the Brazilian, earning a unanimous decision win and planting his own flag as a potential contender. Unfortunately, the ensuing few years have shown that Hermansson can hit a clear ceiling against a more physically imposing opponent. His momentum coming off of the “Jacare” win was quickly halted via knockout against Jared Cannonier, and he had trouble overcoming the brutal consistency of Marvin Vettori. Against less mindful opponents like Kelvin Gastelum, victim to a first-round Hermansson heel hook, or Edmen Shahbazyan, who gassed himself in a clear decision loss to the Frontline Academy standout, the Swedish-Norwegian has proven himself as a dangerous fight against anyone but the very elite at 185 pounds—a category that may or may not include Strickland.

This is the right next test for Strickland. There is a chance he can make a statement with a dominant win over Hermansson in a manner similar to Vettori, but in doing so, he will have to answer some questions, mostly centered around his wrestling and grappling as a middleweight. Strickland has some chops on the mat. He has been able to rely on takedowns as needed most of the time, and the last man to shut down that part of his game completely was Usman. Since Strickland’s 2017 bouts against Usman and Court McGee, he has not faced both a willing and effective wrestler. Any wrestling success from Hermansson could greatly change the dynamic of the fight. Strickland’s run at middleweight has been built around his ability to pressure his opponents on the feet and continue to rely on his reflexes for defense. Not having to worry about a takedown threat has allowed him to open up, so if Hermansson can put at least a bit of fear in Strickland’s mind, it could force the Californian into a more cautious fight. As far as the striking match, that seems relatively even. Neither man is considered a knockout artist, but each possesses some thudding power. Hermansson is at least more mindful of his defense than Strickland, who is willing to leverage his durability in the name of continuing the chase after his opponent. Hermansson tends to warm up over the course of his fights, so it will be interesting to see what happens if he has a particularly cold start since momentum may be crucial. If Strickland can shuck off a takedown or two, it is easy to see this becoming like the Vettori fight, with Hermansson eventually finding some late moments of success but losing rounds against sheer persistence and durability. Still, the bet—even if Strickland takes an early round or two—is that once Hermansson gets himself fully into the fight with command of all his weapons, it will be enough to start slowing down Strickland and to begin to turn the tide. It is always nice when the most important fight on the card is also the hardest to call for good reasons, and that looks to be the case in this instance. The pick is Hermansson via narrow decision.



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