Preview: UFC Vegas 100 ‘Magny vs. Prates’

This marks the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s 100th visit to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, and it offers up a serviceable main draw given those standards. The main event sees Carlos Prates become the latest welterweight to take on eternal gatekeeper Neil Magny, and there are some familiar names elsewhere on the lineup. A new face brings some intrigue to the table at UFC Vegas 100, as former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder attempts to announce himself as a middleweight to watch against Gerald Meerschaert. Meanwhile a showdown between Luana Pinheiro and Gillian Robertson could put the winner in position for something interesting at 115 pounds.

Now to the UFC Vegas 100 “Magny vs. Prates” preview:

Welterweights

Carlos Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC) vs. #15 WW | Neil Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC)

ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)

Prates figured to be one of the more UFC-ready contract winners on the 2023 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series, but it’s still a bit of a surprise to see the Brazilian run up the ladder this quickly. Prates had more than a decade of mixed martial arts experience under his belt ahead of his Contender Series appearance to go along with time spent in various other striking arts, and that shines through given his comfort inside the Octagon. If anything, Prates can be a bit patient in terms of setting up his spots, but once he heats up, things have quickly gone south for his opposition inside the UFC. Trevin Giles ate a second-round knockout; Charles Radtke was crumpled within a round by a knee to the body; and “The Nightmare” became the first man to knock out Jingliang Li in August. That combination of violence and a willingness to keep an active schedule makes it unsurprising that Prates has quickly found himself as a promotional favorite, and he has the potential to make some big things happen in 2025. However, like most welterweights, he needs to get through Magny to get there.

It has now been nearly a decade since Magny settled in as the gatekeeper to the welterweight elite, which came after an impressive 11-fight run. Magny was clearly on the UFC cut line heading into 2014, but reeled off 10 wins in a shade over two years to entrench himself in the welterweight rankings. The foundation of Magny’s approach has typically been fairly simple. Blessed with a long frame, Magny is content to flick out volume from range, which either works on its own or forces his opponents to close ranks, at which point he can drown them with a sneakily sturdy clinch game. That has served as an IQ test of sorts that a surprising number of fighters haven’t been able to pass, though when opponents either have Magny scouted or can handily beat him in one of those two areas, they tend to blow things completely open and score a one-sided victory. Now 37 years old and a decade and a half deep into a hard career, Magny is clearly slowing down a bit, and while he’s still quite effective at a certain level, there has been some important slippage on the margins. He’s not quite as fast as a striker, and a quick knockout loss to Michael Morales in August showed that his durability isn’t quite as ironclad as it has been in the past. Prates’ cold starts could lead to his falling into the clinch and Magny finding a lot of success making this an ugly fight, but it’s hard to look at the recent performances for both men and not think that once the Brazilian gets things going, he should be able to finish it shortly thereafter. The pick is Prates via second-round knockout.

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Magny vs. Prates
De Ridder vs. Meerschaert
Sopai vs. Turcios
Robertson vs. Pinheiro
Abdul-Malik vs. Todorovic
The Prelims