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Bantamweights

Cody Garbrandt (11-3) vs. Raphael Assuncao (27-7)

ODDS: Garbrandt (-145), Assuncao (+125)

It seems odd to say this about someone who has already been a UFC champion, but Garbrandt finds himself on the precipice of becoming a cautionary tale, if he is not there already. Garbrandt made his UFC debut in 2015 with a win over Marcus Brimage and showed off some of his tools, but he was not particularly overwhelming; and he followed it up with a victory over Enrique Briones that told us even less about him. The fact that “No Love” would become bantamweight champion by the end of 2016 was shocking, even at the time. After a knockout win over late replacement Augusto Mendes, Garbrandt was quickly matched against Thomas Almeida in a headlining affair where Almeida was clearly the A-side and considered the future of the division. However, Garbrandt stopped all of Almeida’s momentum with a first-round knockout, and after another win over Takeya Mizugaki, he suddenly found himself as the top bantamweight contender. The UFC’s decision to roll with Garbrandt as the next challenger was rightfully criticized at the time—he leaped over more deserving contenders, and it seemed to be the promotion going back to the well of Dominick Cruz vs. Team Alpha Male—but everything looked justified after the fight took place. Cruz simply had no answer for Garbrandt’s hand speed and hair-trigger counters, and after 25 one-sided minutes, the Ohio native was the new bantamweight king. It has been downhill ever since, mostly thanks to the efforts of longtime personal rival T.J. Dillashaw. Much more efficient in his movement than was Cruz, Dillashaw essentially played with his food against Garbrandt, drawing out his counters and taking advantage whenever he got wild and left himself open. The first round of their first fight showed that Garbrandt is always ridiculously dangerous, as he nearly knocked out Dillashaw at the end of the frame. However, Round 2 resulted in one-way traffic and led to a Dillashaw finish. The rematch was not much better and resulted in a shellacking that proved Dillashaw was the better man. After a few months off, Garbrandt returned in early 2019 to take on Pedro Munhoz and showed little evolution; after an accidental headbutt stunned Garbrandt early in their battle, the former champ went into berserker mode, winged wild punches and angled for the kill. Garbrandt’s power and speed are usually enough for that to work, but the ridiculously durable Munhoz managed to fire back, take over in the brawl and hand the Urijah Faber protégé yet another first-round knockout. It has been 15 months since we last saw Garbrandt inside the cage, and he basically needs a win here to prove he is not a flash in the pan; unfortunately, the UFC has not done him many favors in matching him with Assuncao.

While Garbrandt has been a promotional favorite during his time with the UFC, it has been the exact opposite story for Assuncao. After losing his Octagon debut as a featherweight, the Brazilian cut to 135 pounds and just kept winning, even as the UFC seemed disinterested in pushing him up the ladder. It was easy to see why. Assuncao is a colorless personality, and his patient and counter-heavy style does not do much to appeal to the masses. However, in 2014, it looked like Assuncao had finally done enough to get some notice, only for his body to betray him. Assuncao was reportedly the first choice to challenge Renan Barao for the bantamweight strap at UFC 173, but he was unable to fight due to a rib injury. As a result, Dillashaw, who Assuncao had defeated a few months prior, stepped in and unseated Barao instead. Assuncao returned a few months later to earn a one-sided win over Bryan Caraway, but he quickly found himself snakebitten once again, as an ankle injury kept him from headlining a card against Faber and cost him about 18 months of his career. Assuncao finally returned at UFC 200, where he looked rusty in losing a rematch to Dillashaw that essentially closed his championship window. Even subsequent wins over Aljamain Sterling and Marlon Moraes did not get Assuncao much of anywhere. His 2019 campaign was a rough one, as Moraes quickly took care of him in their rematch and he struggled with the pace and length of Cory Sandhagen. Still, he carries the rightful reputation as one of the toughest outs in the division, and even if he took a completely different path to get her, Assuncao is in a similar spot as Garbrandt. Both men badly need to win to stay relevant.

This is obviously a referendum on where Garbrandt is at as a contender, but it is also sneakily crucial for Assuncao; the Brazilian needs to prove he can still make his game work against younger, faster athletes. This should still start out as Assuncao’s fight. Garbrandt just does not have much in the way of technical depth, and the Brazilian should be able to play with distance and get the better of any exchanges if he forces the former champion to lead. That could just be the entire fight, but based on history, there is going to be a point where someone gets hurt. If that happens to be Garbrandt, he could once again abandon all defense and focus on returning fire. The pick is Assuncao, and given Garbrandt’s tendency to go off the rails quickly, the method is by first-round knockout.

Continue Reading » Sterling vs. Sandhagen