Preview: UFC 273 ‘Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie’

UFC Bantamweight Championship

C | Aljamain Sterling (20-3, 12-3 UFC) vs. IC | Petr Yan (16-2, 8-1 UFC)

BETUS ODDS: Yan (-475), Sterling (+350)

If nothing else, this should finally bring a conclusion to the saga concerning Yan, Sterling and the UFC’s bantamweight title—unless something goes terribly wrong once again. When Henry Cejudo unexpectedly retired in May 2020, it opened up the title picture for what might be the UFC’s deepest and most varied division. The promotion had plenty of viable and interesting options in terms of fights to crown a new champion, and it landed on Yan vs. Jose Aldo, an all-time featherweight great taking on the fiercest up-and-coming force in the division, a buzzsaw of violence capable of hanging with any opponent at a technical level. In practice, it was an excellent fight that went about as expected. Aldo put in a game effort for a few rounds, but Yan eventually got his reads and ramped things up towards a decisive ending, an extended beating that resulted in a fifth-round stoppage. Now clearly one of the best fighters in the world in one of the sport’s best divisions, Yan also had a clear next challenger lined up in Sterling, who was fresh off a shockingly one-sided win the month prior—a quick submission over fellow top contender Cory Sandhagen. Compared to Yan’s clean rise on the bantamweight ladder—whatever suspense there was mostly came from exactly how terrifying “No Mercy” would look for his future opponents—Sterling’s ascension to title challenger status was the result of a much more frustrating process. The Long Islander was tabbed as a future champion almost immediately upon his entry into the sport but struggled to tie an inefficient range striking game to his strong wrestling and grappling, suffering some extremely disheartening losses along the way. Sterling had finally shown some smarter and more layered striking heading into the Sandhagen bout before getting back to what brought him to the dance in his biggest win to date. With everything clicking for both men, Yan-Sterling looked to be on the shortlist of the best fights the UFC could put together.



Once it was time for the fight, Sterling took the initiative for what seemed to be a sound game plan. With Yan typically staying patient and reading his opponents before turning things around, Sterling opted to give the Russian as little time and space as possible, pressuring the then-champion at a blistering pace with striking volume and takedown attempts. Through two rounds, that approach worked to keep things relatively even and prevent Yan from going full buzzsaw, but it quickly proved unsustainable due to two main factors. First, Sterling could not keep up his own pace. After two rounds of attrition, the “Funk Master” was obviously exhausted to the point of a sheer drop in effectiveness, complete with some terrible body language as the fight trudged on into deeper waters. Second, Yan proved to be every bit the effective wrestler as Sterling. Without that safety valve, Sterling never had an ability to either bank control time or catch his breath, with the end result being Yan scoring all seven of his takedowns while Sterling went 1-for-17. By the championship rounds, Yan appeared to be cruising to a one-sided victory against a thoroughly gassed Sterling—until the Russian committed one of the worst gaffes in the history of the sport. With Sterling on one knee, Yan consulted with his coaches about throwing a knee, after which he blasted Sterling with the illegal blow and left his challenger in no position to continue. Sterling was clearly down, the knee was clearly intentional and so Sterling became the UFC’s undisputed bantamweight champion in what turned out to be the most disputed manner possible.

It has been a strange 13 months since, with Sterling bearing the brunt of the public’s wrath for Yan's mistake. The narrative of Yan being clearly on his way to a win, which was likely true, has obscured the fact that it was still a close fight on the scorecards up until the point that Yan cost himself the title. A Sterling neck injury—only made worse by Yan’s illegal knee—has delayed the rematch until now, and Yan winning an interim title with a spectacular five-round performance over Sandhagen has only added fuel to the idea that Sterling needs to prove himself worthy of a title that Yan essentially handed him via disqualification. With all that said, the likeliest scenario is still a clear Yan win, although Sterling is still likely capable of slowing his seemingly inevitable momentum along the way, provided that the Serra-Longo Fight Team rep has recovered well from injury. Going absolutely manic did not work, but there is a world where Sterling can mix in bursts of pressure at a manageable pace while using his reach advantage to slow down Yan from a distance. However, with Yan frighteningly appearing to be the better wrestler, there just does not seem to be a path towards Sterling keeping the momentum in this fight for long, particularly given that this is a rematch. Having already felt and read Sterling for three and a half rounds, Yan may just be much readier from the jump to get the ball rolling downhill towards his most violent and dominant form. This is still one of the better challenges for the Russian in the bantamweight division. The pick is Yan via clear decision.

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