Preview: UFC 296 Prelims

Women’s Bantamweights

#15 P4P | Irene Aldana (14-7, 7-5 UFC) vs. #9 WBW | Karol Rosa (17-5, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Aldana (-205), Rosa (+170)

The women’s bantamweight division is wide open after Amanda Nunes’ retirement, so this is a compelling benchmarking bout to see if either woman can put together a strong performance and get into the championship mix. Nunes’ retirement came after a dominant win over Aldana, which was a disappointing performance for the challenger in a big spot. Aldana was a fairly hyped signing in 2016 as part of the UFC’s increasing roster of Mexican talent, but a rough start to her UFC career raised some concerns. She struggled to keep up with the constant pressure of Leslie Smith, then looked foot slow in a subsequent loss to Katlyn Chookagian. While Aldana never quite addressed either issue, she eventually found a floor that allowed her to chug along as a relevant fighter with a clear ceiling. A 2019 win over Ketlen Vieira was an interesting sign of progress, as Aldana found some knockout power to her striking that has carried forward in some of her other wins. However, even as that has raised her game up a notch, she has still come up against a clear ceiling. Holly Holm managed to overpower Aldana as a wrestler and outmaneuver her as a striker; and that last showing against Nunes saw Aldana seemingly have no answer for a much more intimidating athlete.

In the other corner, Rosa also seems to be working through some mental issues, as the last two years have been a surprisingly mixed bag for the Brazilian. A bit of a non-prospect upon her 2019 UFC debut, Rosa quickly became a dark horse in a division low on young talent. She has never been much of an athlete or a finishing threat, but she showed an impressive ability to apply pressure and pace, racking up some eye-popping performances in terms of statistical output. Then came a 2022 loss to Sara McMann in which Rosa got neutralized in a wrestling-heavy performance, and she has not been the same fighter since. She will still move forward in spots, but her overall approach is a lot more patient and has tended to diminish the best parts of her game. She is probably still more willing to throw out volume than Aldana, who has a tendency to pick her spots, but this figures to be a close fight where not a lot happens. Aldana should be the harder shot-for-shot hitter so she gets the nod, but this has split decision written all over it. The pick is Aldana via decision.

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