Preview: UFC 296 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

#12 WFLW | Casey O'Neill (9-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. Ariane Lipski (16-8, 5-5 UFC)

ODDS: O’Neill (-198), Lipski (+164)

A fun flyweight prospect fight flies under the radar here. O’Neill is coming off the first loss of her professional career, but “King” should still be an interesting fighter to track going forward. O’Neill came into the UFC with some hype back in 2021, but while her regional tape was certainly cause for some optimism, there were some questions as to how her game would translate up a level. She showed plenty of effective aggression and smart ideas on the regional scene but did not pop as an athlete and seemed to be facing some overmatched competition. Frankly, O'Neill still has not come up against the height of athleticism in the UFC at this point, but she has carried her game surprisingly far. The Scottish-Australian showed a lot of versatility in a four-fight winning streak that kicked off her UFC career, capped off by victories over Antonina Shevchenko and Roxanne Modafferi. However, Jennifer Maia seemed like a big ask in March, particularly with O’Neill recovering from a torn ACL. Indeed, the stout veteran outmaneuvered the prospect without much issue and showed O’Neill’s ceiling for the time being. Lipski makes for an interesting rebound opponent. O’Neill can answer a lot of questions about how she handles superior athletes, while Lipski herself can make a statement that she has finally arrived as a potential contender.

Born in Brazil with Polish heritage, Lipski was a standout on the regional scene of both countries heading into her 2019 UFC debut. Hopes were high that the “Queen of Violence” could make an immediate impact in the flyweight division, enough so that she was matched with perennial fringe contender Joanne Wood for her first trip to the Octagon. Lipski mostly delivered from an excitement standpoint upon hitting the UFC, though often to her own detriment. Her willingness to hunt for a finish left open a ton of defensive liabilities that would usually wind up costing her fights that seemed winnable on paper. Lipski appeared to finally be turning a corner as a more patient fighter until Priscila Cachoeira lured her into a brawl and sparked her in August 2022, though 2023 has seen her continue down her more technical path. A decision win over J.J. Aldrich saw her lean on a clear athletic advantage for a patient win, and while her subsequent victory over Melissa Gatto was mostly devoid of excitement, she did an impressive job of staying within herself over three rounds. A Lipski victory might prove surprisingly unentertaining, as there is a decent chance that she can outquick O’Neill and play an effective neutralizer for 15 minutes. However, the bet is that O’Neill proves dogged enough to close range and take this fight to the ground, where Lipski has yet to prove she can keep herself out of trouble. The pick is O’Neill via second-round submission.

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