Preview: UFC 299 ‘O’Malley vs. Vera 2’

Lightweights

#12 LW | Benoit St. Denis (13-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. #3 LW | Dustin Poirier (29-8, 21-7 UFC)

ODDS: St. Denis (-205), Poirier (+170)

After a breakout 2023 campaign, it is time for St. Denis to prove he has fully arrived as a lightweight contender. The Frenchman came to the UFC in 2021 as an interesting if not particularly notable prospect. He showed some potential but was not all that proven and found most of his success on the back of an aggressive grappling game. That assessment did not change much after the “God of War” made his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in a fight that was a potential disaster. St. Denis was out of his depth moving up on late notice for a bout at welterweight against an underrated fighter, and some poor refereeing resulted in his eating what could have been a career-altering beating. However, once St. Denis made his way to 155 pounds—after taking some time off—he has proven to be an absolute terror. His grappling chops have translated up to UFC-level competition, but the most impressive bit of business has been St. Denis’ relentless pressure striking. He has marched down opponent after opponent and shown the ability to pick his spots, whether it is blasting his counterparts with kicks to remain relatively safe or just deciding to blitz in and hunt for a likely finish. St. Denis’ last two showings, which saw him run over Thiago Moises in his native France and Matt Frevola in Madison Square Garden, were each violent star-making performances that left the Frenchman poised for a big fight once 2024 rolled around. Still, given the risk-reward proposition for taking on someone like St. Denis, it is a bit of a shock to see Poirier step up to the challenge in a fight where the former title challenger has much more to lose.

Poirier is in an odd spot at the moment. His name recognition means he is never too far out of the lightweight title picture with even the smallest bit of a success, but with Islam Makhachev’s infrequent schedule gumming up the works and an ill-timed loss to Justin Gaethje, Poirier probably should just take a fight matched for action and then figure out the rest later. Poirier’s evolution has been a fun story for the decade and a half that “The Diamond” has been under the UFC banner, starting off as a raw 20-year-old and turning into a beloved title contender. Poirier came to the UFC as a featherweight and quickly gained a following thanks to his exciting style—his 2012 encounter with Chan Sung Jung remains a classic—but he had trouble getting over the hump to title contention, ending his days as a 145-pounder with a quick knockout loss to Conor McGregor. Poirier then helped lead the wave of fighters moving up rather than cutting down in weight to find some newfound success. He kicked off 2015 in the lightweight division and immediately had a much more effective blend of power and speed, buoyed by some additional cardio, to boot. However, it still was not a clean rise for Poirier in his new weight class. After a surprising flash knockout loss to Michael Johnson, Poirier openly struggled with his ability to rein things in and balance his technical skill with his willingness to engage in a war. That made his 2018 win over Gaethje particularly cathartic. On paper, it was a classic matchup where Poirier figured to have his moments but sabotage himself with aggression, but he instead stayed ahead of Gaethje the entire fight and scored a fourth-round stoppage. That began Poirier’s ascent to actual star status, even if he did fall short of winning the lightweight title against either Khabib Nurmagomedov or Charles Oliveira. Back-to-back wins over McGregor proved to be a massive career boost to the greater public, and his ability to bite down and outwork Dan Hooker and Michael Chandler in some chaotic fights helped keep his stock just as high among the hardcore fans. Poirier’s lone fight of 2023 was a rematch with Gaethje that was a bit of a cruel twist. Gaethje’s own ability to channel some patience paid massive dividends ahead of a head kick knockout, but it is right back to war for Poirier in this pairing with St. Denis. Poirier figures to be comfortable in this sort of fight, though not particularly safe early on. St. Denis has the offensive diversity and explosive athleticism to pick his spot and nail the American right off the bat. How well things go from there is anyone’s guess. St. Denis’ wins have typically been over in short order, and Poirier has proven time and time again that he can storm back from some hellacious beatings. This is a five-round fight, so cardio could play a huge part, and that is where St. Denis’ hard-charging style is a complete question mark. This could be a sudden and brutal changing of the guard, like Ilia Topuria’s win over Alexander Volkanovski, or another fight where Poirier proves he is not quite done yet. It is a coinflip, but the veteran gets the benefit of the doubt in the absence of any evidence that St. Denis can hang over the long haul. The pick is Poirier via third-round stoppage.

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O’Malley vs. Vera
St. Denis vs. Poirier
Holland vs. Page
Della Maddalena vs. Burns
Yan vs. Song
The Prelims