Preview: UFC 301 Prelims

Women’s Strawweights

Iasmin Lucindo (15-5, 2-1 UFC) vs. #13 WSW | Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-7, 9-7 UFC)

ODDS: Lucindo (-425), Kowalkiewicz (+330)

Kowalkiewicz’s resurgence has been one of the more pleasant surprises of the last few years. Kowalkiewicz’s game was always more than the sum of its parts, as her technique hasn’t always been the sharpest and she hasn’t marked herself as an outstanding athlete. But for all her issues, Kowalkiewicz’s durability and persistence led her to quickly charge up the strawweight ranks with little issue, then hang around the fringes of the title picture after unsuccessfully challenging Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the strap in 2016. Then Jessica Andrade knocked her out in under two minutes back in 2018, a result that essentially sent Kowalkiewicz into the wilderness for four years. Now a much less confident fighter, Kowalkiewicz looked slower and more tentative while absorbing more damage, starting a vicious cycle that led to five straight losses. After the last of those defeats, Kowalkiewicz took about a year off to completely revamp her training situation, and it’s worked shockingly well. Her confidence is back and she’s even developed some newfound wrinkles in her wrestling and grappling game, including scoring a submission of Felice Herrig for her lone finish inside the UFC. Kowalkiewicz will probably hit a ceiling once she gets back to the strawweight elite, but she’s managed to run shop against some flawed prospects over the last few years. Now riding four straight wins, Kowalkiewicz looks to get that number to five against Lucindo—an interesting prospect thanks to her combination of youth and experience. Just 22 years old, the Brazilian is a battle-tested veteran thanks to making her professional debut at age 15. A lot of Lucindo’s regional success was thanks to her powerful wrestling game, but after her UFC debut saw her lose an absolute dogfight against top striking prospect Yazmin Jauregui, the hope was that she had rounded out her game enough to immediately compete at a high level. Lucindo won both of her fights in 2023, but the performances have been a mixed bag. She’s shown the ability to land some big counters against aggressive opponents who give her a lot to work with but accomplished little when Brogan Walker set out to fight with a more neutralizing approach. Lucindo should get her preferred type of fight here, though Kowalkiewicz still gets the nod. The former title challenger might get hit, but that’s unlikely to discourage her at this point in her career, so the bet is that she can keep pressuring and gut out another win. The pick is Kowalkiewicz via decision.

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