Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Gustafsson vs. Teixeira’

Light Heavyweights

Volkan Oezdemir (13-1) vs. Misha Cirkunov (13-2)

THE MATCHUP: According to the official UFC rankings, Oezdemir is the fifth-best light heavyweight in the world. Let us be honest here: He does not deserve the position. A win over established contender Ovince St. Preux was certainly impressive enough, but St. Preux’s performance was so flat that rather than elevating Oezdemir to his position, the UFC’s rankings panel should have dropped him to the bottom of the top 10 and placed the otherwise unproven Oezdemir just over him. That St. Preux himself would probably not have held the sixth place rating were it not for the recent departure of top light heavyweights Ryan Bader and Phil Davis lends further perspective to Oezdemir’s UFC debut, and the recent retirement of #1 ranked Anthony Johnson only makes matters more depressing.

Thank goodness Cirkunov is still in the UFC, even if he probably re-signed with the promotion rather begrudgingly after UFC President Dana White dragged his name through the mud when he became a free agent. Cirkunov is an objectively better fighter than Oezdemir and one with far greater potential as a serious contender. Still fairly young at 30 years old, Cirkunov has developed rapidly since moving to the UFC in 2015. He has finished all four of his opponents in that time, and a dominant win over Nikita Krylov -- another man whose presence among the UFC ranks is dearly missed -- has him looking like a fighter who could soon challenge for the title.

It must be said that Oezdemir is not a bad fighter by any means. He is a large and reasonably powerful light heavyweight, and he trains with the inimitable Henri Hooft, who famously turned Anthony Johnson from a win-some-lose-some athlete with natural power into a technical kickboxer and top contender. Oezdemir lacks Johnson’s speed and coordination, but he is durable and aggressive, mixing his punches and kicks well and pressing forward at every opportunity. He is also comfortable fighting in the clinch, though one has to suspect that phase will favor Cirkunov’s wrestling and grappling.

A Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Cirkunov has garnered seven submissions in his pro career, three of them in the UFC. He is a strong chain wrestler who does well in the clinch and finishes at a high rate when he can time a kick from his opponent. As a striker, he still looks a little slow and stiff, but his timing and technique are getting better with every fight. He calmly and accurately outboxed swarmer Ion Cutelaba last year, showing a sharp right jab and an instinctive ability to land shots in transition. He can look like a plodder on the feet, but his movements are economical and effective. He keeps his feet under him at all times, covers and creates distance well and is surprisingly good at picking off punches and kicks with his hands and shins. The effortlessness with which he transitioned into a Schultz-style arm-in guillotine after knocking down Krylov on the counter suggests that his complete MMA game is only just beginning to blossom.

THE ODDS: Cirkunov (-420), Oezdemir (+335)

THE PICK: Oezdemir beat St. Preux, but the victory had as much to do with OSP’s tentativeness and poor stamina as it did Oezdemir’s determination and skill. Cirkunov is poised to break into the top five, and this will be his opportunity to do it. Expect him to land clean pot shots and counters as Oezdemir comes forward, and look for him to set up takedowns when the Swiss fighter gets too confident with his kicks. The pick is Cirkunov by second-round submission.

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