Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne’

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-8-2, 1-1 UFC) vs. Dennis Siver (22-10, 11-7 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Veteran featherweights Kawajiri and Siver meet in a solid clash. Kawajiri, a longtime staple at the highest levels of Japanese MMA, has seen mixed results since signing with the UFC at the end of 2013. He defeated Sean Soriano on late notice in his debut but dropped a decision to Clay Guida in April 2014. Siver has been with the promotion forever, stringing together a solid run in the last several years, and was rewarded for his tenure with a one-sided beatdown at the hands of Conor McGregor in January.

Siver is mostly known for his unorthodox kickboxing, but he is a well-rounded fighter with skills in all phases. Still, that striking repertoire remains the centerpiece of his game. More of a volume striker on the feet than a one-punch knockout artist despite his thick frame, he likes a no-switch left high kick, spinning back kick dipping left hook and a consistent jab that allows him to fight longer than his lack of height would suggest. He strings together nice combinations, controls distance well and can operate both moving forward and on the counter. Defensive wrestling has always been a strength of his game, and he is a good takedown artist with a particularly smooth single-leg. From top position, his heavy base gives him strong control, and while he is not a venomous grappler, he is difficult to move, passes nicely and can get some force into his ground strikes.

Kawajiri has been in the sport for a long time and boasts the pared-down game of a true veteran. He is not much of a striker and never really has been, with an arsenal that consists mostly of single punches and kicks mixed in with the occasional spinning strike. The real meat of Kawajiri’s game lies in his combination of powerful wrestling and transitional grappling. He is a brutally strong monster once he gets in on his opponent’s hips, with an array of high-crotch lifts and powerful slams to go along with Kazushi Sakuraba-esque kimura rolls and the like. Once Kawajiri gains top position, he passes neatly and has an array of topside submissions, and he excels at finding the back.

BETTING ODDS: Siver (-180), Kawajiri (+150)

THE PICK: Frankly, both fighters are past their primes, Kawajiri likely more so than Siver. I think the basic outline of the matchup favors the German; he is difficult to get to the ground and works at a much quicker pace on the feet. While Kawajiri could ragdoll him to the mat, I think it more likely that Siver works him over with combinations, stuffs his shots and wins on points. The pick is Siver by decision.

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