Preview: UFC Vegas 106 ‘Burns vs. Morales’

Light Heavyweights

Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1, 1-0-1 UFC) vs. Paul Craig (17-9-1, 9-9-1 UFC)

ODDS: Bellato (-500), Craig (+380)

Craig returns to light heavyweight for what should be an engaging scrap. Scotland’s “Bearjew” figured to be a fun curiosity when he came to the UFC in 2016, owning a surprisingly adept submission game for someone of his size. However, it wasn’t a surprise when Craig’s results turned out to be fairly boom or bust. He would pull off the occasional low-percentage miracle, most notably in his literal last-second submission of Magomed Ankalaev in 2018, but just as often get absolutely nuked by a much more powerful striker. Despite most of Craig’s fights feeling like a coinflip, he did manage to go on a six-fight undefeated streak from 2019 to 2022 that had him on the verge of contention. That luck eventually corrected, and after losses to Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, Craig decided to ply his trade down at 185 pounds. Craig’s debut in the weight class was impressive—he was an effective bully while running through Andre Muniz—but he otherwise found himself stalled out against more skilled opponents, necessitating this move back to 205 pounds. Craig takes on Bellato in what should once again be anyone’s fight.

Bellato is the type of fighter who is capable of both annihilating Craig in short order or diving into a submission for as long as the Scot survives. Bellato has some skills on the mat but is mostly a fairly straightforward slugger who relies on his durability, often getting hurt but rarely getting finished, with his lone losses coming to fellow UFC fighter Vitor Petrino. That sheer persistence is a double-edged sword in a matchup like this, as Craig’s game is built to catch opponents who focus on offense at the expense of defense. Even so, the call is that the Brazilian is bull-headed enough to find a finish. The pick is Bellato via second-round stoppage.

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Burns vs. Morales
Bellato vs. Craig
Santos vs. Yusuff
Ruziboev vs. Stoltzfus
Costa vs. Erosa
The Prelims