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Lightweights

Nasrat Haqparast (16-5, 8-4 UFC) vs. Jared Gordon (20-6, 8-5 UFC)

ODDS: Haqparast (-238), Gordon (+195)

With the first losing streak of his career now firmly in the rearview mirror, it would be nice if Haqparast could finally hit a new level. Haqparast dropped his UFC debut to Marcin Held in 2017, but his performance there continued a trendline of the German improving rapidly from fight to fight. Still just 22 years old at the time, Haqparast had one of the highest ceilings on the UFC roster. Indeed, Haqparast impressed greatly in his next fight, a surprisingly dominant win over Marc Diakiese, but by the time he suffered his first UFC loss—a quick knockout thanks to a crisp counter from Drew Dober—in 2020, some concerns were starting to form about his progress. The overconfidence he showed before getting knocked out by Dober was the latest sign that Haqparast was starting to coast on his natural talent, and from there, his fights fell into a solid pattern. He would beat opponents on the fringes of the UFC roster, though never in a blowout, and he would clearly fall short when given a step up in competition against craftier veterans. The hope is that a December win over Jamie Mullarkey, a sub-two-minute knockout that somehow marks Haqparast’s first finish since 2019, is at least a sign that he can put his foot on the gas and take care of business quickly when the opportunity presents itself. Meanwhile, Gordon’s career has gone somewhat the opposite route as that of Haqparast. A highly touted prospect himself, Gordon quickly found that his hard-charging style got him knocked out at the UFC level, forcing him into doing an impressive job of reinventing himself as a more patient and well-rounded fighter. Gordon’s still at his best when he can cleanly outwrestle his opponent, even though those opportunities are few and far between against better competition, but he has developed a crafty boxing game that has allowed him to pick his spots. A first-round knockout of former Olympic wrestler Mark O. Madsen in November was an impressive bit of business, but even as Gordon seems to be rounding into a career-best form, he still figures to run into the athleticism gap that has plagued him throughout his UFC career. Seemingly every high-level athlete that Gordon has faced, particularly big punchers, has found a way to finish “Flash” within 15 minutes. Gordon should fight the much smarter fight for however long this lasts, but Haqparast can probably close the show in a matter of moments, particularly if he comes into this fight with any type of focus. The pick is Haqparast via first-round knockout.

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