Preview: UFC on ESPN 42 ‘Thompson vs. Holland’

Welterweights

#7 LW | Rafael dos Anjos (31-14, 20-12 UFC) vs. Bryan Barberena (18-8, 9-6 UFC)

ODDS: Dos Anjos (-540), Barberena (+420)

It is honestly a bit of a shock that Barberena is riding a three-fight winning streak. “Bam Bam” got on the greater radar with his 2016 upsets of top prospects Sage Northcutt and Warlley Alves, making his name from there as a consistently tough fighter who always provided entertaining fights, culminating in a 2019 “Fight of the Year” contender against Vicente Luque. Though Barberena got knocked out in the closing seconds of that bout, his performance up until that point suggested that things were finally peaking in terms of his skills and ability. Then the next few years raised nothing but red flags. Barberena suffered another knockout loss to Randy Brown, then missed over a year due to major back surgery, looking flat despite winning his return bout over Anthony Ivy. That gave way to another major surgery, this time due to life-threatening internal bleeding, after which Barberena put in one of the worst performances of his career in a loss to Jason Witt, suggesting that years of hard-fought wars had finally caught up to him in a sudden late-career slide. Still just 33 years old, “Bam Bam” is obviously diminished from his peak, but his recent success is a testament to his toughness. After outworking raw prospect Darian Weeks, Barberena won wars against Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler to make 2022 a successful rebound year. Barberena is likely facing those all-time violence legends at the right time to get those wins, but it was still a level of success that was far from guaranteed given all he has been through. The hope, at least from his standpoint, is that he is also meeting dos Anjos at just the right time.

We have now passed the 14th anniversary of dos Anjos’ UFC debut, as the Brazilian overcame a rough start to his time with the promotion to become one of the more underrated fighters in the sport’s history. Initially a grappling specialist, “RDA” quietly built out a pressure striking game that fully blossomed with a 2013 win over Donald Cerrone, starting a run of success that culminated with a lightweight title win over Anthony Pettis. Having gone from journeyman to one of the elite fighters in the sport, dos Anjos seemed poised for a high-profile run as one of the UFC’s top champions, but his reign was mostly marked by the first spate of injuries in his career. A rematch against Cerrone was dos Anjos’ only successful title defense, and he missed out on a big-money bout against Conor McGregor before dropping the championship to Eddie Alvarez in 2016. After a subsequent loss to Tony Ferguson froze dos Anjos out of the title picture at 155 pounds, he moved up to welterweight for a run that was quite successful at first, as he made it all the way to an interim title fight with Colby Covington. However, things clearly plateaued at a certain level, with dos Anjos’ pressure-heavy game working much less effectively against larger fighters who could neutralize his wrestling and clinch work. A cut back down to lightweight also stalled out with a July loss to Rafael Fiziev, but in both that fight and his prior wins against Paul Felder and Renato Carneiro, dos Anjos has looked much the same fighter. He may be slightly diminished at 38 years of age, but the loss to Fiziev says more about the latter’s athleticism and talent than anything. That makes this move back to welterweight a bit of a surprise, but while dos Anjos should eventually run into the same problems at 170 pounds that he did previously, this does not look like that type of matchup. Barberena is a grinder, but dos Anjos looks like the much less diminished fighter with age and is coming down from a higher peak. Unless dos Anjos has suddenly fallen a few notches in the last few months, this looks like a return to welterweight that should be fun and successful. The pick is dos Anjos via decision.

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Thompson vs. Holland
Dos Anjos vs. Barberena
Nicolau vs. Schnell
Pavlovich vs. Tuivasa
Hermansson vs. Dolidze
Daukaus vs. Anders
The Prelims