Preview: UFC on ESPN 42 ‘Thompson vs. Holland’

The Octagon on Saturday will touch down in Orlando, Florida, after a rare off week, and the Ultimate Fighting Championship has put together a deep card for those in attendance at the Amway Center. In the headlining spot at UFC on ESPN 42, Stephen Thompson tries to fend off a late-career slide against Kevin Holland, who looks for a breakout win at 170 pounds. Beyond that, the show features a collection of former marquee talents and potential contenders. Rafael dos Anjos returns to welterweight for a potentially entertaining co-main event opposite Bryan Barberena; heavyweight hopefuls Tai Tuivasa and Sergei Pavlovich slug things out; and Jack Hermansson attempts to hold serve at middleweight against Roman Dolidze. Add in Matt Schnell’s return from a “Fight of the Year” contender, and this has all the makings of a solid main draw.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 42 “Thompson vs. Holland” preview:

Welterweights

#6 WW | Stephen Thompson (16-6-1, 11-6-1 UFC) vs. Kevin Holland (23-8, 10-5 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-155), Thompson (+135)

How much does Thompson have left in the tank? “Wonderboy” is certainly entering his late-career slowdown, and it has been a successful decade in the UFC given how roughly it started. A flashy victory over Dan Stittgen added to the considerable hype behind Thompson at the time, but a one-sided loss to a then-lightly regarded Matt Brown made him seem more like a fun curiosity than any sort of future contender. However, Thompson had a yearlong layoff after the Brown loss and showed up in much better form, charging up to contender status with seven straight wins, including victories over names like Robert Whittaker, Johny Hendricks and Rory MacDonald. Thompson’s ability to set range with his karate background and his quick reflexes proved to be a lethal combination for most opponents, who found themselves unable to mount much offense without the South Carolinian hitting them hard on the counter. Then came Thompson’s two title fights against Tyron Woodley. Their first encounter was full of highs and lows. Both men have an approach built around letting their opponents lead, but while there were long stretches of inactivity, those were offset by some exciting exchanges whenever someone decided to spring into action. The end result was a draw, which necessitated a rematch many hoped would see both men build on what they learned in the first bout. Instead, what each man apparently learned was risk avoidance, as the rematch was one of the worst title fights in UFC history. Neither of them did much of anything, lest their opponent have an opening, and Woodley got the nod in the worst possible coinflip of a decision. That left Thompson without much of a path back to title contention for as long as Woodley was champion, though that issue resolved itself with the karateka suffering two straight losses. A decision defeat to Darren Till resulted in another staring contest, then Anthony Pettis proved to be the only man dynamic enough to catch Thompson for a knockout. Clear wins over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal proved Thompson was still a viable contender, though 2021 was the first sign that the wheels were starting to come off for his approach. Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad managed to outwrestle Thompson without much issue—something opponents had never found much success doing in the past. Wrestling was always Thompson’s theoretical weakness, but up to that point, Woodley had been the only wrestler explosive enough to actually beat him to the takedown; while losing to Burns in such a manner was a worry, doing so against Muhammad, who has never been considered a standout athlete at welterweight, showed that Thompson has lost a step as he nears 40 years of age. If 2021 proved that Thompson can no longer stay ahead of a style matchup that was always supposed to give him fits, he could still be quite viable against an opponent who does not provide a wrestling threat. Muhammad may have kept him mostly pinned down, but Thompson still proved to be effective against Burns during the moments when their fight was on the feet. A lot of questions figure to be answered here, as Holland certainly does not provide much of a wrestling threat.

It is still a bit difficult to know what to make of Holland, particularly with his recent move down to 170 pounds. Holland was a reliably fun fighter who thrived during the pandemic era of the UFC, at least at first. His willingness to step in and fight as often as possible made him a mainstay on the UFC’s cards in 2020, and his constant trash talk provided some much-needed energy in an otherwise quiet arena. It also helped that Holland won all of his fights during the calendar year, and a creative knockout of Ronaldo Souza to cap it off set Holland up as a potential contender in 2021. Then things went completely south. A main event loss to Derek Brunson demonstrated just how much Holland’s creativity could be neutralized by a persistent wrestler—an issue that got highlighted even more when he stepped in for another main event three weeks later and got outwrestled by Marvin Vettori. Things also were not going particularly well in Holland’s only other 2021 appearance against Kyle Daukaus, but he walked away with a no contest after the fight-ending submission was ruled to be a direct result of an unintentional clash of heads. Holland cut down to welterweight in 2022, and it is impressive that “Trailblazer” can even make 170 pounds. At 6-foot-3 and with an 81-inch reach, Holland has one of the longest frames in the division. That advantage seems to have paid dividends, at least in wins over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means. There has not been much of the striking craft that Holland showed at middleweight since his move down to a new division, but he has made up for it through aggression and power, finding openings against each for a sudden second-round finish. Holland’s last fight was one he was always going to lose, as the UFC 279 matchmaking chaos left him paired with Khamzat Chimaev for a quick loss, but it will be interesting to see what he can manage to do in this assignment. Like Thompson, Holland should be much more comfortable against an opponent who does not look to wrestle. Thompson is still the better striker from a craft standpoint, but this does seem like a bit of a cruel matchup for “Wonderboy” from a youth and athleticism standpoint. Luque and Neal were much more straightforward strikers against whom Thompson had the option of outmaneuvering, but Holland’s frame alone should take away any idea of complete comfort for the former title challenger. Holland admittedly is not the best fighter at maximizing his reach, especially since his move down to welterweight, but he is a more willing striker than ever and brings plenty of creativity with his offense. Over 25 minutes against a version of “Wonderboy” that he now should be able to outquick, it is easy to see him landing something huge that Thompson does not see coming. This could be a redux of the Pettis loss, where Thompson was controlling the fight up to the point of losing, but the pick is Holland via second-round knockout.

Jump To »
Thompson vs. Holland
Dos Anjos vs. Barberena
Nicolau vs. Schnell
Pavlovich vs. Tuivasa
Hermansson vs. Dolidze
Daukaus vs. Anders
The Prelims