Preview: UFC on ESPN 54 ‘Blanchfield vs. Fiorot’

Welterweights

#11 WW | Vicente Luque (22-9-1, 15-5 UFC) vs. Joaquin Buckley (17-6, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Luque (-112), Buckley (-108)

Where does Luque stand in 2024? Luque was one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC for years, hitting the ground running with an exciting pressure style coming off of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2015. Luque would stalk forward and take damage, either landing with knockout power or luring his opponents into an underrated grappling game centered around his vicious brabo choke. That resulted in a lot of entertaining wars and impressive finishes, but Luque was still typically relegated to the undercard, only finally getting some shine four years into his UFC career with a breakout 2019. Luque’s third-round knockout of Bryan Barberena came at the end of one of the best fights of the year, which in turn led “The Silent Assassin” to some plum card placement, earning a co-main event slot against Mike Perry in the UFC’s debut in Uruguay and a main card slot in Madison Square Garden opposite Stephen Thompson. While Thompson turned Luque back, the Kill Cliff Fight Club rep regrouped well over the next two years, entering 2022 as a fringe title contender and getting set for his first UFC main event—a rematch of his first-round knockout of Belal Muhammad six years prior. This time around, Muhammad had improved enough in the interim to earn a clear decision win, but it was Luque’s next loss to Geoff Neal that was particularly worrying. Neal’s hand speed allowed him to seemingly batter Luque at will as the New Jersey-born Brazilian continued to march forward. Neal eventually scored a brutal knockout that apparently left Luque with a career-threatening brain injury. Luque got cleared for a return a year later against Rafael dos Anjos, though the vibes were understandably not great, and his performance was a mixed bag. The fight really said more about dos Anjos’ shortcomings as a welterweight than anything about Luque. Dos Anjos kept forcing himself into a losing grind against Luque, who was content to stay patient and coast an ugly win out. After a scheduled bout against Ian Garry in December fell through, Luque now looks to get a winning streak going against Buckley, who figures to test his durability.

If nothing else, Buckley will always have one of the best highlights in UFC history—a jumping spinning back kick that knocked out Impa Kasanganay back in 2020. That was an impressive bit of creativity from “New Mansa,” who was not exactly known for that as a prospect. Rather, Buckley typically found success with a straight-ahead style that allowed him to blitz opponents with powerful bursts of offense, with him showing an impressive amount of cardio in the process. With Buckley willing to stay active and the UFC looking to jump on the virality of the Kasanganay finish, he took a few quick turnaround fights at the end of 2020 and early in 2021. However, after Alessio Di Chirico was able to time one of Buckley’s charges and score a knockout, Buckley slid back to the middleweight pack. Buckley has honed his skills in the years since, and while he is a sharper striker, his game is still chained to the same general approach. Buckley can build momentum more than ever, but opponents with enough size to neutralize him or the striking craft to eventually time his strikes can usually wind up winning in dominant fashion. The good news is that a move down to welterweight in 2023 does seem to have solved some of those issues. Running over Andre Fialho was not a surprise, but Buckley consistently stayed ahead of Alex Morono for a decision victory in October; and while Morono is a clear non-athlete, he is the type of crafty problem solver who figured to have some success picking Buckley apart. This pairing does seem to be set up well as a way for Buckley to break into the welterweight rankings. Even if Luque still has his historical durability, his approach is still remarkably straightforward and built around meeting his opponents head-on. That willingness to step up to a clash could mean that Luque can catch Buckley with a knockout blow as he charges into an exchange. With that said, Buckley’s combination of speed, power and consistency does figure to serve him well in the war of attrition that Luque typically likes to force—before even factoring in his recent health issues and concerns about his durability after the Neal loss. The pick is Buckley via decision.

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Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
Luque vs. Buckley
Silva vs. Weidman
Ruziboev vs. Dumas
Algeo vs. Nelson
Njokuani vs. McKee
The Prelims