UFC 166 ‘Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3’ Preview

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Heavyweights

Daniel Cormier (12-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (19-8, 6-4 UFC)

The Matchup: After three straight wins moved him to the brink of contention in the UFC’s heavyweight division, Nelson’s limitations were exposed against Stipe Miocic at UFC 161. For three rounds, Miocic peppered “The Ultimate Fighter 10” winner with multi-punch combinations while avoiding Nelson’s powerful overhand right. In addition to looking one-dimensional against his opponent, Nelson ran out of gas down the stretch. While some of Nelson’s conditioning issues were undoubtedly a result of taking the bout on short notice, “Big Country” has never been known for his endurance.

Cormier, meanwhile, put forth a workmanlike performance in his Octagon debut, as he utilized suffocating clinch work to capture a unanimous decision against former titlist Frank Mir in April. This is supposed to be Part 1 of an extended weight cut for Cormier, who is likely to drop to 205 pounds in pursuit of a title shot if training partner Cain Velasquez remains on top at heavyweight. How this process affects Cormier’s performance is worth watching.

For a change, Nelson will not be at a reach disadvantage. However, the two inches of reach he has on Cormier are not likely to be a factor. The American Kickboxing Academy product is a skilled boxer and able to land combinations while moving in and out of danger. Considering that all six of the portly Las Vegan’s UFC triumphs have ended via strikes -- including five inside of a round -- this does not bode well for Nelson’s chances. An evening of headhunting for Nelson will likely go the direction many of his bouts against top-tier heavyweights have, with him wading forward and absorbing a tremendous amount of punishment for his efforts. Cormier is not likely to present him with the home-run countering opportunity he seeks.

Nelson’s other option, of course, is to attempt to punch his way into the clinch and wear down Cormier before attempting to get his foe to the mat with a trip takedown. While Nelson, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, has a heavy top game, he will find it difficult to ground a man who has yet to be planted on his back in nine Zuffa outings. If Cormier can shut down Josh Barnett’s submission game, he should be able to do the same against Nelson. Instead, expect Cormier to control the tempo of the bout in the clinch. If anyone is going to secure a takedown, it will be the two-time Olympian.

The Pick: There is always the outside chance that Nelson scores the upset by connecting with a kill shot; that is a big part of his appeal. However, Cormier is more versatile on the feet and the far better wrestler, so he simply has more options. Cormier wins by lopsided decision.

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