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Women’s Bantamweights

Miesha Tate (13-5, 0-2 UFC) vs. Liz Carmouche (9-4, 1-2 UFC)

The Matchup: Tate ventured into uncharted territory in December, becoming the first woman to survive the opening frame against reigning bantamweight queen Ronda Rousey. The end result was the same, however, as Rousey armbarred the cupcake aficionado 58 seconds into third round at UFC 168; it was the second time Tate has fallen to Rousey. While Tate did not get the desired outcome, the bout did confirm that the Washington native is one of the division’s most resilient competitors. Tate’s popularity within the promotion is also indisputable, but with losses in three of her last four outings -- including two Octagon appearances -- she is badly in need of a victory.

While Tate lasted the longest against Rousey, Carmouche had the Olympic judoka in the greatest danger of any opponent she has faced, threatening with a rear-naked choke and neck crank before falling via armbar at UFC 157. Since then, “Girl-Rilla” has split a pair of bouts, overwhelming the smaller Jessica Andrade in July before dropping a unanimous decision to Alexis Davis at UFC Fight Night 31.

Before her feud with Rousey propelled her to stardom, takedowns, top control and ground-and-pound carried Tate to a title in the now-defunct Strikeforce promotion. She continues to attempt to implement her bread-and-butter skills in the UFC, but against a superior athlete like Rousey or a larger foe like Cat Zingano, maintaining positional dominance can be an uphill struggle.

Much of Carmouche’s success is based on her ability to be physically dominant. She struggled in her most recent fight because Davis was the aggressor throughout, hampering Carmouche’s movement with leg kicks and attacking with punching combinations and knees in the clinch.

Tate has aggression to spare, but her wild striking is primarily a means to close the distance. Fortunately for her, Carmouche is not a particularly developed striker, either. With that in mind, much of this contest could take place in clinches against the fence and on the mat.

Carmouche probably has the strength advantage, but Tate is relentless in scrambles and is also capable of catching the former Invicta Fighting Championships talent in a submission during a scramble. If Carmouche achieves top position, expect the Team Hurricane Awesome product to try and land authoritative ground-and-pound. Tate must look to sweep and reverse or return to her feet if such a situation arises.

The Pick: Tate’s wrestling is good enough to keep Carmouche from overpowering her. She wins by decision or submission.

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