Preview: UFC 204 ‘Bisping vs. Henderson 2’

Light Heavyweights

Ovince St. Preux (19-8) vs. Jimi Manuwa (15-2)

THE MATCHUP: Despite losing a lopsided decision, St. Preux showed his class in his fight with Jon Jones, tagging the former champion a few times and going the distance despite suffering a broken arm midway through the bout. It seemed that St. Preux’s size was the biggest factor behind his competitiveness in that fight, but he also showed some good discipline, reserving his energy for the later rounds. In the past, “OSP” has worn himself out by throwing nothing but power shots. Still, Jones may be particularly susceptible to large opponents: He not only seemed strangely uncomfortable across from St. Preux but struggled mightily to beat Alexander Gustafsson, the light heavyweight division’s other supersized striker.

Manuwa’s frame does not give him any particular sense of security, and so he will likely be more comfortable with a big man like St. Preux, whose bag of tricks is still fairly shallow. Manuwa prefers a fairly small array of tactics himself, but he understands very well how to use each strike to set up the next one. Manuwa is most dangerous with his left side, with vicious left hooks, kicks and knees. Like St. Preux, he is heavy-handed, though he is probably less able to absorb punishment himself, having been knocked out in two of his last three fights.

St. Preux often chooses to fight as a counterstriker. He relies heavily on his left body kick to do damage and, because he throws it with reckless abandon, tends to impose himself on less confident opponents. Neither Manuwa nor St. Preux is particularly strong in the grappling department, though the former is perhaps more comfortable in the clinch. Both men are fairly effective at defending takedowns, though they have struggled against superior wrestlers. In St. Preux’s case, he was repeatedly taken down by Glover Teixeira and Ryan Bader, while Manuwa struggled to stay on his feet with Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson.

THE ODDS: St. Preux (-148), Manuwa (+128)

THE PICK: This is not an easy fight to call. Imposing as he may be, St. Preux has a long way to go technically, and there are no strong signs that he will be making those leaps anytime soon. Manuwa is certainly the more technical kickboxer, but he is also less durable than St. Preux and probably a little less powerful, as well. Because Manuwa is unlikely to take down St. Preux and control him on the ground, it seems that St. Preux’s power and overt physicality will be the strongest advantage in the fight. Thus, the pick is St. Preux by third-round TKO.

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