Preview: UFC 291 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje 2’

Welterweights

#7 WW | Stephen Thompson (17-6-1, 12-6-1 UFC) vs. #15 WW | Michel Pereira (28-11, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Thompson (-150), Pereira (+130)

Thompson looked like the future of the division a few years ago. A flashy kickboxer, Thompson was seemingly exposed in a one-sided loss to Matt Brown back in 2012, but instead, he further adapted his striking into a much more effective game, rattling off a seven-fight winning streak with a fair bit of highlights that put him firmly in the contender mix. However, Thompson’s pair of title fights against Tyron Woodley served as a turning point for his career. The first was a draw and the second was a Woodley win, and the two men mixed like oil and water, as their respective counter-heavy approaches turned things into an interminable staring match, damaging Thompson’s reputation as an all-action fighter in the process. Owing to both inactivity and some mixed results, Thompson’s career never quite found its footing from there, though his wins over rising contenders proved he was still among one of the top handful of fighters in the division—at least until the tail end of 2021. Losses to Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad saw each man succeed in neutralizing Thompson with a wrestling-heavy approach that had not worked much against him in the past, showing that the South Carolina native had lost a step in his late 30s if nothing else. That made Thompson’s rebound win over Kevin Holland in December a pleasant surprise. It comes with the caveat that Holland himself is not a takedown threat at all, but Thompson was still able to recapture a lot of his classic form in an entertaining war that kept him as a relevant name. For a follow-up, he gets an intriguing matchup against Pereira, who has made some impressive strides in recent years and looks poised for a breakout.

Pereira was a well-regarded signing by the UFC in 2019, almost entirely thanks to the potential entertainment value. An elite-tier athlete, Pereira had a middling record for someone with such considerable talent, mostly owing to his interest in performing backflips and adding to his highlight reel instead of putting in an efficient winning performance. After knocking out Danny Roberts in short order for his UFC debut, Pereira’s sophomore effort is where his issues came home to roost, as he quickly tired himself out against natural featherweight Tristan Connelly and suffered one of the unlikeliest losses of the year. Amazingly, Pereira seems to have taken things seriously in the years since, fighting behind a range style that still allows for some moments of flash but also provides some patience and consistency given his combination of size and speed. Even as “Demolidor” has fought smarter, there is still a clear tendency for him to flag over time. That subpar cardio is the main separator in what could be a bit of a staring contest, as Thompson figures to stay planted and patient while Pereira bounces around at a distance and attempts to blitz. Pereira has also shown a willingness in the past to mix in some takedowns, which could gum up the works for Thompson a bit. That also seems to be a path towards Pereira tiring quickly, so any success there figures to be offset by Thompson outpacing him once action gets back to the feet. This is a close fight, but the American looks more capable of putting in 15 hard minutes. The pick is Thompson via decision.

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Poirier vs. Gaethje
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Thompson vs. Pereira
Green vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Chiesa
The Prelims