Preview: UFC 310 Prelims

Featherweights

#5 FW | Movsar Evloev (18-0, 8-0 UFC) vs. #9 FW | Aljamain Sterling (24-4, 16-4 UFC)

ODDS: Evloev (-265), Sterling (+215)

Evloev and Sterling each seem to be perennially outside of favored status when it comes to UFC matchmaking, but the winner here might just become inevitable for a featherweight title shot. Sterling has been through this once before, eventually becoming bantamweight champion despite the promotion never quite warming to him. Even as far back as 2015, Sterling found himself stuck on the prelims despite his status as a top prospect. Just as the UFC seemed to get behind Sterling a bit, he had the roughest stretch of his career with back-to-back losses to Bryan Caraway and Raphael Assuncao. Even after he eventually rebounded with two wins, the first main card slot of Sterling’s career saw him quickly get knocked out by Marlon Moraes. Things would click for the “Funk Master” shortly thereafter. His wrestling and grappling have always been his standout skills, but it wasn’t until 2018 that he learned to properly leverage his long frame into an effective striking game that allowed him to both neutralize and stay ahead of his opponents. That led to a run where Sterling was firing on all cylinders, and a quick submission of Cory Sandhagen eventually earned him a title shot at Petr Yan, which saw him win the UFC’s bantamweight championship in about the least impressive way possible. Sterling had a decent enough game plan going in, looking to swarm Yan early and prevent the then-champion’s trend of building over the long term, but that seemingly only delayed the inevitable. Sterling eventually burned himself out trying to neutralize Yan, and once he tired out by the championship rounds, he seemed to be a sitting duck for whatever came his way. In a literal sense, that was true. An exhausted Sterling was grounded when Yan blasted him with an illegal knee that knocked him loopy, ending the fight and giving the Serra-Longo Fight Team star the title by disqualification. For the next year and change, Sterling would listen to cries that he didn’t deserve to be champion, which made it all the more cathartic when he wound up winning the rematch fair and square, fine-tuning his approach from the first fight and walking away with the narrow decision. Sterling wound up having a solid title reign and racked up two more title defenses, but he always felt like a promotional afterthought along the way, especially when he wound up dropping the belt to Sean O’Malley in August 2023. That result opened Sterling up for a move up to 145 pounds, and early returns are strong. His win over Calvin Kattar was easily the worst fight of a stacked UFC 300 card from an excitement standpoint, but performance-wise, he did an excellent job of outwrestling an opponent who has rarely gotten outwrestled. Now comes a matchup against Evloev, and dominance on the mat figures to be much more difficult to find.

Evloev made his UFC debut in 2019 and was immediately on the shortlist of the promotion’s most promising prospects. He faced an excellent level of competition up to that point and consistently coasted past opponents with a determined and well-practiced wrestling game. Half a decade later, it’s much the same story, even against some of the best featherweights in the world. Evloev’s only adversity has been putting himself in some poor grappling situations against Nik Lentz and Diego Lopes, and even then, the Russian has been able to escape some dire positions with little trouble. It’s hard to argue with anything Evloev has done—he’s rarely overly patient and consistently fights in a manner that maximizes his chances at victory—but the truth remains that he’s just not the most exciting fighter and that has done little to capture anyone’s imagination. Even his last win, a career-best performance against Arnold Allen in January, saw him add new wrinkles to his approach, but they were mostly in the form of some efficient striking defense—another part of Evloev’s game that pays off at an elite level but brings little sizzle to the proceedings. To that point, this fight might not be the most exciting in practice, as it might just come down to who’s better prepared when his A game of wrestling doesn’t work that effectively. However, that’s also the type of dynamic where the improvements Evloev showed against Allen figure to pay dividends. Either way, this should be 15 minutes of hard work—as impossible as Evloev is to finish, he also has yet to finish anyone inside the Octagon—and Sterling still probably deserves the nod here despite the Russian’s last performance. Evloev can run himself into some difficult positions, and while Sterling is unlikely to find an outright submission, the former bantamweight champion’s frame and back-take game make him much more suited to turning an advantageous position into minutes of control, even against someone as practiced as his counterpart. While Sterling might not have his usual reach advantage at 145 pounds, he should be able to leverage a speed advantage—and Evloev’s patience—to some effectiveness there. Evloev continues to improve and could show some fight-changing wrinkles here, but the pick is Sterling via decision.

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