Preview: UFC Fight Night 72 ‘Bisping vs. Leites’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Joseph Duffy (13-1, 1-0 UFC) vs. Ivan Jorge (26-4, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: While the commentators will likely repeat the fact so many times that the audience is sick of hearing it, Duffy was the last man to defeat Conor McGregor. He could also be the next big thing at lightweight, and the Tristar Gym product showed his potential with a devastating first-round finish of Jake Lindsey in March. While Brazil’s Jorge is no pushover, Duffy is clearly the A-side here and is being groomed for potential stardom.

Duffy is not a wet-behind-the-ears prospect but an experienced and savvy competitor who also has professional boxing experience. As you might expect, striking is his wheelhouse, and he has the potential to be one of the division’s elite. His jab is piercing and consistent; he consistently slips his head off the centerline, both to defend and disguise his shots; and he mixes up his strikes to the head and body organically depending on his opponent’s hand positioning. If all of that were not enough, he works at a quick and efficient pace and is difficult to hit cleanly. Duffy is also a good wrestler with strong takedown defense and a nice arsenal of trips and throws. On the mat, he passes quickly to the mount or the back, packs real force in his ground strikes and can finish with a variety of submissions.

Jorge is big, strong and reasonably solid everywhere, though he does not stand out in any particular phase. He likes to rush in with one or two punches or sling single shots from range, mixing up punches to the head and body with the occasional low kick. He is generally effective but quite hittable, with little defensive skill. Grinding in the tie-ups and wrestling are strengths, and Jorge owns a nice arsenal of body-lock throws and trips in the clinch, along with decent shot takedowns. On the mat, Jorge is suffocating from top position, with nice passes and an extremely heavy base, though he has shown little ability to submit elite competition.

THE PICK: Unless Jorge can get Duffy down early, which seems unlikely, the Irishman should be able to handily pick him apart on the feet. The most likely scenario involves Jorge doing his best to grind it out early, but then walking face-first into one of Duffy’s sharp counterpunches. The pick is Duffy by knockout in the second round.

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