Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Teixeira vs. St. Preux’

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Middleweights

Derek Brunson (13-3, 4-1 UFC) vs. Sam Alvey (26-6, 3-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Brunson draws Alvey in a solid clash of streaking middleweights. “Smile’n Sam” Alvey came up short in an ill-advised drop to 170 pounds for “The Ultimate Fighter 16,” but he has made serious hay at middleweight since returning to the promotion last year, finishing each of his last three opponents inside the opening frame. Brunson has won his last two, knocking out Ed Herman in 36 seconds in January and taking a slow-paced decision from Lorenz Larkin a year ago.

Alvey is a striker by trade. More specifically, he is a counterpuncher and one of the purest examples of the type in all of MMA. He has little ability or desire to lead the dance, preferring to stalk his opponent while relying on his durability to absorb shots while waiting for his opening. When the right moment comes, however, the southpaw unleashes a surprisingly fast and powerful barrage of shots. His straight left is potent, but the right hook is his money punch, and he can put nearly any opponent to sleep with it. That is the entirety of Alvey’s game. He defends takedowns well but has nothing to offer on the mat aside from basic defensive skills.

Brunson was a Division II All-American wrestler but has grown into a well-rounded fighter with diverse skills. The southpaw has a kick-heavy arsenal at range, constantly flicking front and round kicks to utilize his length and maintain the distance. He throws a nice straight left, as well, but his offensive output is limited and he is far too hittable in punching distance. While he is competent on the feet, wrestling remains the heart of Brunson’s game. He generally does a good job of setting up his shots with strikes, and his rangy kicks serve to push opponents toward the fence, where he gets most of his takedowns. If he cannot get the fight to the floor, Brunson is happy to grind away in the clinch with knees and short punches for minutes at a time. As a grappler, he is mostly content to work suffocating control, but he has a nice move to the back and generally scrambles well.

BETTING ODDS: Brunson (-400), Alvey (+330)

THE PICK: Brunson is hittable and will likely give Alvey a few golden opportunities to place his counterpunches, but if he cannot land the knockout shot it seems unlikely that Alvey has any other path to victory. I think Brunson will eat a few big punches, work his way into the clinch, secure takedowns and grind out a slow-paced fight. The pick is Brunson by decision.

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