Preview: UFC Vegas 101 Prelims

Lightweights

Thiago Moises (18-8, 7-6 UFC) vs. Trey Ogden (18-6, 3-2 UFC)

ODDS: Moises (-195), Ogden (+160)

Like a lot of Ogden fights, this might not be the most exciting bout on paper but should be interesting in practice. Ogden took the long road to a UFC contract and settled into the middle of the company’s lightweight division when it picked him up in 2022, but he has raised his profile in recent years, both as a coach and owing to a three-fight undefeated streak. Large for the division, Ogden has some solid weapons from range and a strong wrestling game, which has allowed him to play neutralizer to an impressive degree. The UFC has matched him with veteran brawlers in Nikolas Motta, Kurt Holobaugh and Loik Radzhabov, and Ogden has just taken his time in taking all three men apart. That has earned him a shot at Moises—an interesting bit of matchmaking given the Brazilian’s own propensity for neutralizing his opponents. Moises came to the UFC in 2018 with an impressive amount of poise for someone in his early 20s, as he was willing to stay patient and break down his opponents either on the feet or through an underrated ground game. That has gotten the Brazilian to the fringes of the UFC’s lightweight rankings, but he has hit a ceiling against better athletes with more aggressive approaches, as they have just been able to take over the fight and make Moises pay for his lack of initiative. It’s easy to see Ogden using his size advantage to pick away at him for three rounds, but Moises does seem like the more willing fighter to fill the space and try to take things over if this turns into a staring match from distance. That’s enough to give the Brazilian the benefit of the doubt in a fight where neither man might do all that much. The pick is Moises via decision.

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