Preview: UFC on ESPN 55 ‘Nicolau vs. Perez’

Women’s Flyweights

#13 WFLW | Karine Silva (17-4, 3-0 UFC) vs. #12 WFLW | Ariane Lipski (17-8, 6-5 UFC)

ODDS: Silva (-155), Lipski (+130)

Flyweight is quickly becoming the UFC’s most interesting division on the distaff side, and this fight should help sort things out. Lipski came to the UFC with a strong resume, enough so that she was thrown immediately into the deep end, debuting against perennial contender Joanne Wood. Lipski lost that fight handily and from there went on a bit of a disappointing run, living up to her “Queen of Violence” nickname but mostly doing so to her own detriment. The Brazilian could bring the excitement, but her focus on aggression often resulted in opponents taking advantage of her lack of defense and composure. Lipski was essentially written off until a surprisingly patient and effective win over Mandy Bohm in 2021, though that progress appeared to be quickly dashed with a follow-up loss to Priscila Cachoeira, who was able to lure Lipski into a brawl and knock her out in short order. However, 2023 proved to finally be Lipski’s breakout year, as she bounced back to that more practiced form for wins over J.J. Aldrich, Melissa Gatto and Casey O’Neill to break into the UFC’s flyweight rankings. The Aldrich and O’Neill performances were particularly impressive showings, but there is still a sense of doubt as to how far Lipski’s improvements can take her. Those wins were all fights where she had a clear athletic advantage, and the specter of the Cachoeira loss still raises the worry that an aggressive opponent can take Lipski out of her game.

Silva should test some of that, as she is a clear athlete in her own right who has been surprisingly effective since hitting the UFC. Silva came to Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021 with a finish-focused style that did not figure to translate well against better competition. Even that victory saw her accomplish little up until the point that she ended the fight with a second-round guillotine choke. That has still been the game plan for Silva in the years since, even if there have been some minor improvements in her approach along the way. While some of Silva’s earlier fights saw her flit around until a finishing opportunity suddenly presented itself, she has been better recently about trying to force her wrestling in an attempt to get to her grappling game, which is easily her best phase. Lipski is no slouch on the mat herself, but the bet is that once Silva gets to her ground game, she can stay aggressive enough to force her countrywoman into some costly decisions. The pick is Silva via first-round submission.

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Nicolau vs. Perez
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Silva vs. Lipski
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The Prelims