Preview: UFC on ESPN 55 ‘Nicolau vs. Perez’

The UFC 300 hangover remains in effect. Two weeks after one of the best cards in Ultimate Fighting Championship history, the company on Saturday returns to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for a much more typical event. The top three fights at UFC on ESPN 55 are at least interesting, if not immediately important to their respective divisional title pictures. The main event sees fringe flyweight contenders Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez each try to rebound from recent losses in an intellectually interesting clash of styles, and the co-headliner serves as a surprisingly amusing bit of matchmaking from the UFC, as perennial Anthony Smith rival Ryan Spann faces “Lionheart” doppelganger Bogdan Guskov in a compelling light heavyweight affair. Beyond that, we find a potentially violent pairing of surprisingly successful Brazilian flyweights in Ariane Lipski and Karine Silva, and there are some other fights with entertainment potential. Promising featherweight prospect David Onama looks to stave off a grind against Jonathan Pearce, and Tim Means’ bout against Uros Medic is a welterweight clash matched for violence.

Now to the UFC on ESPN 55 “Nicolau vs. Pereira” preview:

Flyweights

#5 FLW | Matheus Nicolau (19-3-1, 7-2 UFC) vs. #8 FLW | Alex Perez (24-8, 6-4 UFC)

ODDS: Nicolau (-185), Perez (+154)

This might not be the highest-wattage main event, but it is still an interesting stylistic matchup that should help sort out the top of the UFC’s flyweight division. It was less than six years ago when the entire division was on the chopping block, and the UFC releasing Nicolau was one of the major signs that something was up. A former standout on “The Ultimate Fighter,” the Brazilian was a technically sound and highly successful prospect who suddenly found himself out of the promotion after an upset loss to Dustin Ortiz. However, Nicolau won two fights on the regional scene while the UFC reversed course on tearing down the flyweight division, and he eventually got his long-overdue UFC return in 2021. From there, Nicolau has essentially picked up where he left off, starting with a narrow decision win over Manel Kape. Nicolau is a sharp striker and a talented wrestler and grappler, but he mostly looks to leverage his tools towards neutralizing his opponents, making for some frustrating affairs even in his cleaner wins. A knockout of Matt Schnell to cap off 2022 led to some hope that Nicolau might be turning the corner as a finisher, but his lone fight of 2023 went quite poorly, as his tendency to concede initiative just got him quickly knocked out by Brandon Royval. His latest campaign has seen a potential rematch with Kape fall by the wayside twice, first in January and then in this headlining slot. Thanks to a Kape injury, Nicolau now looks to rebound against a former title challenger in Perez.

Perez charged up the ranks to a title fight with Deiveson Figueiredo in short order, fighting behind a bullying pressure style centered around some powerful wrestling and grappling. However, once Figueiredo tapped Perez in about two minutes, he became a forgotten man in record time. Injuries and weight cut issues involving both Perez and his opponents led to fight cancellation after fight cancellation. Perez missed all of 2021 and 2023, and his lone fight of 2022 was a 91-second blowout loss to current champ Alexandre Pantoja—a performance that led to growing concern that he loses all effectiveness against an opponent who can bully him back. To that end, his March bout against top prospect Muhammad Mokaev was an impressively hard-nosed showing against a fellow grinder, but it was still a bit disheartening to see Perez unable to pull the trigger late and get a potential upset over the finish line. The good news here is that Perez should be able to get off to a hot start, as Nicolau’s patient and counter-heavy style allows it, and it will be fascinating to see how the fight goes from there. Nicolau’s three career losses have each seen him get caught cold before he gets a chance to find a groove, and Perez is enough of a power puncher to get that number up to four. Still, Nicolau is a practiced enough grappler that it is hard to see Perez’s wrestling serving as a safety valve; and the way Perez faded against Mokaev suggests Nicolau can take this fight over in the championship rounds, even if there could be a lot of ugliness before things get to that point. The pick is Nicolau via decision.

Continue Reading »
Nicolau vs. Perez
Spann vs. Guskov
Silva vs. Lipski
Diniz vs. Lane
Pearce vs. Onama
Medic vs. Means
The Prelims