Preview: UFC on Fox 14

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Ryan Bader (18-4, 11-4 UFC) vs. Phil Davis (13-2, 9-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two of the UFC’s best young light heavyweights meet in the cage more than a decade after they competed on the wrestling mats. Bader, the winner of the eighth season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” is riding a three-fight winning streak capped by a decision over Ovince St. Preux. Davis, an NCAA national champion at Penn State University and veteran of a dozen fights in the UFC, rebounded from a brutal drubbing at the hands of Anthony Johnson to take a dominant decision over former top contender Glover Teixeira in October. Given both fighters’ tenure in the UFC, it is almost hard to believe that they have yet to fight each other, and this should be an intriguing scrap.

An athletic All-American wrestler from Arizona State University, Bader has finally developed into the powerful, well-rounded fighter most thought he had the potential to become.

His wrestling, predicated on an exceptionally explosive double-leg and the occasional single, still forms the core of his approach, but his striking has become much more technical and skilled, as has his control on the ground. While nobody will confuse Bader with Floyd Mayweather Jr., he works behind a stinging jab and throws a monstrous left hook with great timing on the counter, and his right hand packs every bit as much power. On the mat, Bader excels at using wrestling control positions such as the top ride but also maintains a heavy base and lands damaging shots from inside the guard and half guard. He is difficult to hit cleanly at range, with crisp head movement and surprisingly slick angles, but when he does eat a flush shot, he has had trouble staying on his feet. The most impressive aspect of Bader’s game, however, is his ability to bridge the gaps between his skill sets with excellent transitional offense. He throws hard shots on clinch breaks and off failed takedowns, and he looks for openings for submissions or strikes directly upon completing his doubles.

Unlike Bader, Davis has never truly caught on to the striking game. While he landed a few decent shots on Teixeira and is not exactly hopeless on the feet, his lack of speed and anything resembling natural power hamstrings him, and he does not have the clean fundamentals that would minimize the effects of this deficiency. Far too often, Davis reaches with his shots, which prevents him from both transferring weight -- hence the lack of power -- and tracking a moving target. He does not move efficiently, either, and consistently pulls back too far out of the pocket to counter or shoot a reactive takedown. Davis’ wrestling is still top-notch, but his lack of explosiveness and reliance on chaining a relentless series of singles, doubles and trips leaves him vulnerable to defensive wrestlers who can stuff his initial shot and immediately create space. If he can get the fight to the mat, Davis is truly exceptional. His mat wrestling and control are incredible; he throws a constant stream of hard strikes from all positions; and he has a real knack for finding creative submissions.

BETTING ODDS: Davis (-260), Bader (+180)

THE PICK: Those odds seem way off to me. One good performance against a clearly diminished Teixeira does not erase Davis’ struggles against the other high-end competition he has faced, especially since his old liabilities were still present even in victory. If Bader -- hardly a novice wrestler in his own right -- can stuff Davis’ initial shots and create space, he should have a substantial advantage in both technical skill and power at striking range, and the Arizonan is a threat to get Davis down, as well. In sum, Bader should be able to keep it standing, work a takedown or two of his own and take a clear decision.

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