UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. dos Anjos’ Preview

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Middleweights

Francis Carmont (22-9, 6-2 UFC) vs. Thales Leites (23-4, 8-3 UFC)

The Matchup: Frenchman Carmont rode a string of questionable decision victories to the edge of the middleweight top 10, but back-to-back losses to Ronaldo Souza and C.B. Dollaway have left him on the verge of a stint in the unemployment line. Leites, on the other hand, is in the midst of a career resurgence. Once sent packing to the regionals, he has reeled off three straight wins since his return to the UFC and stands on the cusp of a top-10 ranking for the first time since 2009.

While the UFC has billed Carmont as a striker throughout his eight-fight run in the organization, the core of his game is solid wrestling, a stifling clinch game and suffocating top position backed by crisp if low-output work at range. The highlight of Carmont’s striking arsenal is his powerful kicking game, which his length at 6-foot-3 makes even more dangerous.

While it has not been enough to win many matches contested purely on the feet, Carmont is still improving from fight to fight and showcasing improved timing, sense of the range and output.

Leites came into the UFC as a world-class grappler, and that remains the basis for his success as a fighter. Since then, he has evolved into a decent striker, competent wrestler and grinding clinch fighter, as well, although he still struggles to win fights on the feet. On the ground, Leites is almost impossible to shake off and rarely needs more than a single takedown to ensure that he wins the round.

Betting Odds: Carmont (-150), Leites (+130)

The Pick: Even coming off a pair of losses and a number of questionable decisions before them, Carmont is simply the better and more complete fighter. Leites lacks the superb takedowns of Dollaway and Souza, cannot match Carmont’s strength and size in the clinch and does not possess the kicking arsenal or technical ability to win the fight at range. Carmont takes a convincing unanimous decision.

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