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Featherweights

Clay Guida (31-14, 11-8 UFC) vs. Dennis Bermudez (13-3, 6-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Following a brilliant four-fight winning streak capped by a major upset of a young Anthony Pettis back in 2011, perennial fan favorite and grizzled veteran Guida is 2-3 in his last five appearances. He took a dominant decision from the aging Tatsuya Kawajiri in his last outing to halt an ugly streak that culminated in the first knockout loss of his long career. The fantastic chin that carried Guida through so many wars finally cracked against top contender Chad Mendes, and one wonders whether his body can hold up for much longer.

Bermudez, on the other hand, is clearly on the upswing. Since dropping his debut to Diego Brandao by armbar at “The Ultimate Fighter 14” Finale, he has won six in a row over increasingly stiff competition. While some of those wins have been controversial -- the wars with Matt Grice and Max Holloway, in particular -- it is impossible to escape the conclusion that the onetime wrestler is becoming a dangerous and well-rounded fighter with outstanding athleticism and power in his strikes.

It is an intriguing matchup. Guida has always been known for his cardio, but the secret is that his pace does not necessarily translate to output; he spends a lot of energy bouncing around at range and hanging onto takedown attempts that go nowhere and not as much time actually throwing strikes or landing takedowns. Bermudez also pushes a brutal pace, but he also produces a great deal of offense in terms of both landed strikes and takedowns. While Guida’s power should not be undersold, he does not really compare to Bermudez in that facet, and he is nowhere near as technical in putting together combinations, working multiple levels and landing counters at range. Bermudez’s chin has been a problem for him in the past -- Brandao, Grice and Tommy Hayden have dropped him -- but it is less about the chin than the fact that when he gets hit, he really gets hit hard.

The real meat of the fight will more likely take place in the wrestling exchanges and scrambles. Both are talented and effective wrestlers, although Bermudez has historically been better at stuffing takedowns -- he has stopped 20 of 22 attempts in seven fights -- so it is hard to imagine Guida getting him down repeatedly without paying for it in damage at close range. Bermudez does have a tendency to give up limbs and his neck in transition, and Guida is a talented scrambler and grappler, but “The Menace” has enough skill there to avoid the submission.

The Pick: Guida is a veteran who has seen it all, but he has fallen off his peak just enough for Bermudez to take this with a combination of opportune takedowns and better striking output on the feet. Add in his ability to work control and damage in the clinch, and I think Bermudez has all the ingredients to take a close decision.

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