5 Lessons Learned from UFC on Fox 30
The first clash between Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez ended in controversy when they met 14 months ago. On Saturday at UFC on Fox 30 in Calgary, Alberta, Poirier gained revenge and resolution with a brutal second-round knockout. Yet, despite a definitive ending to their rematch, the controversy only intensified.
While the fantastic Ultimate Fighting Championship offering was more than an appropriate peacemaker to the Stampede City -- a promise UFC President Dana White had been making for six years after Calgary’s historically dreadful UFC 149 card -- the cluster-you-know-what in the main event more than certainly raises some questions from which we can learn.
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It’s not all doom and gloom, though. UFC on Fox 30 featured some enterprising up-and-comers, adding to the company’s arsenal of outstanding prospects who are potentially on the road to elite status. Here are five lessons we learned from the event:
Poirier, Alvarez are Violent; MMA’s Rules Even More So
Poirier-Alvarez 2 lived up to the promise of more of the breakneck violence we witnessed in their first fight, but no one could’ve imagined -- especially with a finish in the fight -- it would wind up being even more controversial than their first meeting. Alvarez grabbed the fence repeatedly, while Poirier grabbed it to deliver a brutal head kick that was one of the last nails in the coffin and also appeared to catch Alvarez in the groin at one point during his insane fight-ending salvo; and, of course, there’s the real sticky foul, the downward elbow from Alvarez that led referee Marc Goddard to take away full mount, leading to the climactic sequence just moments later. Even more complicating is the fact that Alvarez’s coach Mark Henry can clearly be seen outside the fence, calling for the former Bellator MMA champion to throw said downward elbow. What a complete mess of a situation. So who’s to blame? Bear with me, as there’s a lot to unpack because of the magnitude of the chaos here.
With such a complete cock-up of a situation, it’s not that simple. The easiest way I can think to fully address the situation is by analyzing the two different kinds of fouls that catalyzed the result. First, let us consider the repeated fence grabbing. Alvarez, trapped in a deep guillotine and being a savvy veteran, was well aware of a dirty MMA secret: You’ve always got a foul or two to use up before you’re in danger of having a point deducted. Meanwhile, Poirier managed to get away with his less egregious fence grab while putting his shin upside Alvarez’s head because his target was getting mauled on the feet and Goddard was intently assessing whether Alvarez needed to be immediately rescued, so it went on right behind the referee’s back.
In my view, the underlying issue here is that all referees, even good ones, are loathe if not outright frightened to deduct points because MMA bouts aren’t like 10- or 12-round boxing matches; they’re largely three or five rounds, meaning a single point being taken away can completely alter the outcome of the fight, which is the last thing an in-cage official wants, especially given the power major promotions like the UFC wield over athletic commissions and their assignments. Do you really want to be the ref who screws up a major main event in front of White and Marc Ratner, just for enforcing the rules?
The only credible solution I’ve been able to come up with over the years to remedy this is for commissions to allow half-point deductions. For instance, Fighter X wins two rounds clearly, Fighter Y wins one, but Fighter X has committed a legitimate, fairly serious foul. A full-point deduction is likely going to lead to an unsatisfying 28-28 draw in a three-round bout. With a half-point deduction system, you end up with 28.5-28 and Fighter X, having won the majority of the bout, still gets his hand raised. It’s not perfect, but to my mind, it would at least engender an environment where referees aren’t so scared to do their jobs properly. If Goddard was able to dock Alvarez a half point immediately for his ludicrous first fence grab, maybe he wouldn’t have kept it up for most of the fight.
About That (Alleged) 12-to-6 Elbow
First, it was horrible coaching for an otherwise great coach like Henry to clearly suggest Alvarez throw a downward elbow while in full mount, especially since he should’ve realized his fighter was already on thin ice. However, the 12-to-6 rule is perhaps the most consistently misunderstood rule in MMA; an elbow with any arc whatsoever is no longer defined as 12-to-6. Alvarez’s elbow appeared to, even if ever so slightly, have some arc to it.
Does that make Goddard to blame for making a bad call? Not to my mind. In the heat of the moment, no referee can slow frenetic action into Matrix-style bullet time and measure a strike with some sort of neuro-visual protractor. Asking a referee in real time to decide whether a downward elbow had even 10 degrees of an arc is absolutely, patently insane.
I happen to think 12-to-6 elbows should be unilaterally legal. However, even if you disagree, consider that at the annual Association of Boxing Commissions meeting in 2006, former Nevada Athletic Commission Executive Director Keith Kizer and New Jersey State Athletic Control Board Counsel Nick Lembo both suggested a rule change that would permit 12-to-6 elbows to any part of the body other than the head. Their proposal was defeated and voted down, largely on the advice and input of ABC-affiliated doctors and physicians. Now, keep in mind, Alvarez’s elbow -- whether or not you think it had a mathematical arc -- landed clearly to Poirier’s trapezius. If this rule had been passed and ratified over a decade ago, this would be clearly, objectively legal. In turn, that rule change would make the lives of MMA refs just a little bit easier and especially less stressful.
Did Alvarez knowingly, willingly cheat? Yes. Did Poirier get away with a perhaps insignificant fence grab that was nonetheless technically a foul? Yes. Did Goddard perhaps make a “mistake” that no one other than a superhuman mutant could have diagnosed in real time? Maybe. For my money, if we’re placing blame for the shambolic nature of Poirier-Alvarez 2, it shouldn’t be any of the three. MMA’s rules are archaic, muddled and often difficult to enforce. In this case, it falls upon regulators -- even the promoters who have the power to push and pull them -- to create clearer, more rational standards that allow referees to do their jobs and can actually dissuade fighters from feeling like they can do whatever they want without repercussion.
Aldo is Still Kicking -- Punching, Actually -- But For How Long?
Aldo is the greatest featherweight in MMA history, but headed into UFC on Fox 30, he was 1-3 in his last four fights and had been knocked out in all three of those losses. With his back against the wall, Aldo delivered one of the year’s most savage knockouts, ripping Jeremy Stephens with a terrifyingly audible left hook to the liver before pounding him out. Aldo ain’t in the grave yet, but where does “Scarface” really stand?
After 14 years in the game, 31 pro fights and a history of injury, the more pertinent issue for me isn’t whether or not Aldo can still fight but rather questioning how he’s fighting.
Aldo-Stephens was a rollicking slugfest; it rocked. However, even if he won with a devastating two-hook combination to the body that almost knocked Stephens’ liver out of his guts, the Aldo we saw was most certainly not the same Aldo that lorded over the 145-pound division for over six years. The Nova Uniao product still demonstrated his historically underrated defensive techniques, parrying Stephens’ punches, slipping and rolling under and behind his strikes like a consummate pro. However, as he has aged, Aldo has gotten physically larger, and whether due to the extra size or wear and tear, he is noticeably slower with diminished reflexes.
The bigger question and worry I have, though, pertains to how Aldo fought Stephens. This was not vintage Aldo; he wasn’t patient, he seldom used his legendary leg kicks and he didn’t wait to unleash sudden, devastating counters. Instead, in a do-or-die type of fight against one of the biggest punchers in the division, he willingly took on an insane brawl that got him tagged on several occasions and rocked. He lunged at Stephens repeatedly with swooping hooks and uppercuts. Yes, he prevailed because of his pantheon-level offensive technique and power, but he was playing with fire for over four minutes, daring disaster to strike. Longevity in any fighting sport is typically predicated on savvy veterans using experience, defense and strategy to outwit and outclass adversaries, all while maintaining their physical wellness. Aldo is a long way from shot, but if he approaches future engagements like he did against Stephens, he may get shot down again in short order.
So, You Wanna Be An Ultimate Matchmaker? Not Right Now
Most MMA fans and a huge swath of the sport’s media fantasize about having the book for the UFC and being able to match whomever however they wanted. Despite that and despite the brilliant performances of Poirier and Aldo in Calgary, those particular fight outcomes put UFC matchmaker Sean Shelby in a messy two-division muck.
As mentioned, Poirier has lost only once in his last 10 fights and continues to improve and gain visibility. In almost any other era of the promotion, this man would be a mortal lock for a lightweight title shot now, if he hadn’t been granted one previously. However, in the era of Conor McGregor’s shot-calling, Khabib Nurmagomedov’s weight issues and Tony Ferguson’s injury woes, things are far more complicated. White affirmed following UFC on Fox 30 that the company is angling for a Nurmagomedov-McGregor showdown, but there’s no telling how long that may take to materialize, meaning Poirier may be stuck in limbo. Plus, keep in mind, “The Notorious” one will be none too willing to jump back into the Octagon for anything less than a chance to regain his chunk of gold.
If the company is married to a Nurmagomedov-McGregor pairing, former interim 155-pound champ Ferguson, who suffered a knee injury in April, seems like the most sensible option for Poirier in an iron-clad title eliminator. However, while Ferguson remains optimistic he can return by November, knee injuries can be fickle, as can be the UFC’s schedule and planning. What if McGregor balks at the UFC’s offer and plays hardball well into 2019? Does the promotion try for Nurmagomedov-Ferguson for the millionth time, crossing its fingers and knocking on wood? If so, that leaves Poirier in the lurch. Even if Nurmagomedov-McGregor comes to fruition in a timely fashion for late 2018 and Ferguson heals on schedule, it’s still a bum hand for Poirier. He will have to beat yet another elite fighter -- truly one of the best in the sport -- in order to get a title shot that he would’ve already received if not for the complete turmoil that has characterized the UFC’s lightweight division over the last two years.
That brings us to the featherweight division. In light of Aldo’s thrilling knockout, what do you do with the man next? Since capturing the UFC featherweight title from Aldo and defeating him in their rematch last year, divisional kingpin Max Holloway has been ailing, first suffering an ankle injury in February ahead of a proposed defense against Frankie Edgar, then withdrawing from his slated July defense against Brian Ortega due to concussion-like symptoms. The latter injury is significantly worse; with concussion issues, a timetable is much harder to forecast.
If the Hawaiian isn’t ready to fight in a timely fashion, does the UFC create yet another interim title for an Aldo-Brian Ortega fight? What if Ortega would rather wait? The next two most accomplished featherweights in the division, both coming off wins, are Edgar and Chad Mendes. However, Ortega just clobbered Edgar and Mendes just got his first win in two years after a U.S. Anti-Doping Agency suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Worse, if Ortega waits it out or gets hurt himself, it’s even harder to pair Edgar or Mendes against Aldo. Yes, “The Answer” and “Money” are Aldo’s two greatest career rivals, but the Brazilian beat them both soundly, twice each. Is anyone clamoring for Aldo to run it back against either man for a third time? If Holloway is out for an extended period of time and Ortega doesn’t want or is unable to fight Aldo, the only options become pairing Aldo with a lesser fighter coming off of a loss or potentially cannibalizing an up-and-coming prospect, neither of which are desirable options. If you want to be a UFC matchmaker at this point, you’d rather be Mick Maynard than Shelby.
Speaking of Those Prospects …
At least they exist. Even if those prospects may not be ready-for-primetime players, the UFC in Calgary was a fine exhibition for some of the promotion’s up-and-coming talent at 155 pounds. Islam Makhachev looked absolutely brilliant in destroying Kajan Johnson, bringing his record to 16-1. The Dagestan native is just 26 years old and only figures to improve as he works alongside brethren like Nurmagomedov at the American Kickboxing Academy.
Also on the bill, Alexander Hernandez, who was on nobody’s radar until March when he decked Beneil Dariush in 42 seconds on just over a week’s notice, showed a relentless, grinding dimension to his game by outworking and outmuscling Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He seems to be just scratching the surface of his potential. This is to say nothing of emerging lightweight talents like Gregor Gillespie, Drakkar Klose, Mairbek Taisumov and David Teymur.
Meanwhile, while the Calgary card only featured two featherweight contests and only one legitimate prospect in Hakeem Dawodu, the UFC is replete with intriguing and exciting 145-pound hopefuls. Again, you wouldn’t want to throw any of them in with Aldo quite yet, but the roster still boasts talented blue chippers like Mirsad Bektic, Renato Carneiro, Zabit Magomedsharipov, Yair Rodriguez and Alexander Volkanovski, to name just a few.
Unlike five years ago or so, the UFC no longer has an iron grip on all the best up-and-coming talent in the world, and yes, all of these fighters have a way to go to prove they are championship-level competitors. However, if the UFC can weather the storminess atop the featherweight and lightweight divisions over the next year or so, there might just be sunnier days ahead.
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