Preview: UFC 305 ‘Du Plessis vs. Adesanya’

Welterweights

Carlos Prates (19-6, 2-0 UFC) vs. Jingliang Li (19-8, 11-6 UFC)

ODDS: Prates (-340), Li (+270)

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya Saturday at 10 ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

It’s good to see Li back in action after a two-year layoff. There’s now a sizable Chinese contingent on the UFC roster, but Li was the one success story of the promotion’s initial attempts to break into the country circa 2014. Most of his countrymen quickly washed out, but “The Leech” was able to adapt and survive. Li initially lived up to his nickname as a grinding wrestler but quickly realized the need to update his approach against competition much better than what the Chinese regional scene was providing, so he developed a surprisingly sharp striking game built around some powerful counters. Eventually slotted into the role of fun undercard brawler, Li kept winning enough—at one point, he racked up seven wins in eight fights—that he eventually became a going concern as a potential welterweight contender, though the last few years have seen him clearly hit a ceiling. Li has alternated wins and losses since a 2020 defeat against Neil Magny, finding knockouts of Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov but not having much of an answer for Magny or Khamzat Chimaev. Li also wound up being the big loser of the last-minute shuffle at UFC 279 two years ago, prompted by a massive Chimaev weight miss. Initially given a winnable matchup against Tony Ferguson that still would have gained Li some shine, he instead wound up losing a tepid split decision against Daniel Rodriguez. After suffering a career-threatening spine injury while training for his next fight, Li is finally back, though the UFC hasn’t done him many favors in his return with a tough test against a rising Brazilian in Prates.

A professional since 2012, Prates has proven to be one of the more UFC-ready graduates of the 2023 edition of Dana White’s Contender Series. Prates’ approach can be frustrating at times, but he’s quite comfortable and effective at what he does. Blessed with a long frame, Prates is a patient striker with enough takedown defense to keep his fights standing. While Prates can be frustratingly inactive at times, the results tend to be quite spectacular once he decides to spring into action, as he has shown some brutal striking accuracy once he warms up and can pick his spots. It would be legitimately impressive if Prates found a knockout here, given that Li has never been knocked out over a long career that has included some tough competition, but there is a decent chance he can score one of his rare decision wins. Li’s own counter-heavy style could make this a bit of a staring contest, and he has struggled at times against much longer opponents, most notably Magny. Add in that Li is recovering from a major injury at what seems like an inopportune point in his career, and the read is that Prates can pump out enough volume to win rounds with the judges, even if the fight itself might be fairly tepid. The pick is Prates via decision.

Jump To »
Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Erceg vs. Kara-France
Gamrot vs. Hooker
Rozenstruik vs. Tuivasa
Prates vs. Li
The Prelims