Preview: UFC 309 Prelims

Heavyweights

#9 HW | Marcin Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) vs. Jhonata Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC)

ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

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The UFC always needs fresh blood at heavyweight, and Diniz appears to be the latest fighter pushed into sinking or swimming among the top tiers of the division, as he has been quickly rebooked against Tybura after a fight against Derrick Lewis fell through earlier this month. Diniz is as good a choice as any to get the step up, as he has over a decade of combat sports experience and has some potential as a knockout artist while still being in his earlier 30s—young for the heavyweight division. Diniz has the issues you would expect from someone who converted from kickboxing to mixed martial arts less than three years ago, as he doesn’t appear to offer much on the mat; and even his striking game is a bit of a risky proposition, as he has tended to stay patient and pick his spots before landing with some impressive accuracy. However, Diniz does hit hard once he gets going, and while his ground game is still a clear work in progress, he has survived on the mat enough to not be a complete lost cause.

On the Tybura side of things, he’s looking to rebound from what might be the worst loss of a long UFC career to Serghei Spivac. “Tybur” has been an ideal gatekeeper to the heavyweight elite for most of his time in the promotion. Undersized and under-athletic, Tybura is crafty enough to survive against a lot of heavyweight sluggers and has a decent wrestling game buoyed by one of the better grappling attacks for the division. While most of Tybura’s losses usually see him get knocked out—and even then, only by some of the UFC’s better heavyweights—he has shown an impressive ability to gut things out time and time again to put together one of the UFC’s most underrated records. That all makes the loss to Spivac in August a bit baffling, as he quickly succumbed to an armbar from an opponent he beat handily in 2020. Fortunately for him, nothing from that fight appears to translate to this pairing against a kickboxer like Diniz. Tybura looks to have the level of ground game that can cut through whatever Diniz offers on the mat, as long as the Pole doesn’t get knocked out first. Given the patience that Diniz shows early in his fights, the lean is that Tybura can get that first takedown and take things from there. The pick is Tybura via first-round submission.

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