Preview: UFC 309 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Veronica Hardy (9-4-1, 4-4 UFC) vs. Eduarda Moura (10-1, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Hardy (-142), Moura (+120)

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Hardy has yet to truly break into relevance, but her unexpected comeback has been a pleasant subplot in the UFC women’s flyweight division. Hardy was inexperienced and raw in mixed martial arts when the UFC picked her up in 2016, and while she was an obvious prospect from an athletic standpoint, she struggled to turn a grab bag of skills into any sort of consistently successful approach. After a 2020 loss to Bea Malecki, Hardy went into semi-retirement for three years due to some concussion issues before re-emerging with a new game against Juliana Miller in March 2023. Hardy’s approach is still a grab bag of sorts, but there’s a much higher level of consistency and an ability to leverage her speed into frustrating her opponents; and while she has tended to flag by the third round of her fights, she has had enough in the tank to get three decision wins over the finish line in her return, including an impressive victory over J.J. Aldrich in May. That would theoretically set Hardy up for some bigger things, but instead, she finds herself welcoming Brazil’s Moura to the flyweight division.

A 2023 graduate of the Contender Series, Moura looked like a strawweight prospect to watch thanks to her size, which allowed her to overwhelm opponents and get to a powerful wrestling and grappling game. However, a few issues quickly became apparent, as she seemed lost after Denise Gomes stalled out her wrestling in June. More importantly, Moura turned out to not be a strawweight at all, missing weight in each of her two UFC fights. That has forced a move up to 125 pounds that could cut either way. Without such a severe weight cut, Moura could fill out and be as much of a powerhouse as ever while having a better gas tank, or she could lose all of the physical advantages that led to her success as a strawweight. All else being equal, given the one-dimensional nature of Moura’s game and her counterpart having some skills on the mat, it seems like a big ask for the Brazilian to be able to track down the much faster Hardy and control her for any length of time. The pick is Hardy via decision.

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