Preview: UFC Fight Night 243 ‘Moicano vs. St. Denis’

Lightweights

Fares Ziam (15-4, 5-2 UFC) vs. Matt Frevola (11-4-1, 5-4-1 UFC)

ODDS: Ziam (-125), Frevola (+105)

The UFC’s annual trip to France often serves as an opportunity to showcase some French talent, and Ziam gets a big opportunity this time around. Ziam’s UFC career has been a success so far in the win-loss column, but “Smile Killer” could use a breakout performance, as his fights to date haven’t been particularly exciting. Ziam’s approach makes sense. As a lanky lightweight, he’s content to pick apart his opponents from a distance, and if they close range, he will usually pivot to a control-heavy clinch game. Ziam is improving enough on the margins—as an example, he showed the most punching power he has to date in his last win over Claudio Puelles—that his spot on the UFC roster figures to be safe. For now, it just seems to be a matter of waiting until everything clicks enough for Ziam to be comfortable upping his pace and aggression. It does seem a bit early for Ziam to get this step up in competition against Frevola, but there’s certainly the chance that he steps up and cashes in on the opportunity.

Frevola fell out of the UFC’s rankings after his last loss, but there are some holes in his game to be exploited. Frevola established himself early on as an entertaining fighter, even if that didn’t always benefit the Long Islander. His best performances showed “The Steamrolla” to be a well-rounded offensive threat with a solid wrestling game, but his willingness to brawl would lead him to drop his game plan and get either stunned or knocked out. A 2021 knockout loss to Terrance McKinney seemed to be a pivot point for Frevola, who’s still generally a wildman but has made an important tweak, waiting for his opponent to lead the dance and taking advantage of his natural timing when it comes to landing hard counters. He still eats his fair share of offense, only now he’s landing knockout blows in return—at least until his last fight against Benoit St. Denis, who took advantage of Frevola ceding the initiative and ended things quickly. On the plus side for Ziam, his patience should force Frevola to go back to taking the lead, but his lack of potency makes it hard to see how he will take advantage of that scenario. Frevola figures to still be the harder hitter by a mile, and he’s a capable enough wrestler, which means Ziam’s usual safety valves shouldn’t work to any great affect. Again, Ziam has been slowly improving enough that this could wind up as his breakout performance, but at the moment, it appears his greatest success will be turning a Frevola fight into a slog. The pick is Frevola via decision.

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Carneiro vs. St. Denis
Imavov vs. Allen
Brito vs. Gomis
Battle vs. Jousset
Charriere vs. Miranda
Ziam vs. Frevola
The Prelims