Preview: UFC Paris ‘Imavov vs. Borralho’

Featherweights

Patricio Freire (37-8) vs. Losene Keita (16-1)

Odds: Keita (-200); Freire (+170)

In the main card opener, “Patricio Pitbull” welcomes super-prospect Keita to the UFC, less than six months after his own long-awaited debut.

Freire, who joined the promotion after a year in limbo following the PFL-Bellator merger, came in heralded as Bellator’s greatest homegrown talent, one of its biggest stars and one of the most accomplished fighters of his era outside of the UFC. Since then he has gone 1-1, with a dreadfully inert debut performance against Yair Rodriguez followed by a solid but not breathtaking win over Dan Ige. The two showings were different enough, and the opponents different enough, that it still feels fair to ask “How good is ‘Pitbull’ right now?”

At 38 and with a long and distinguished legacy in the rearview—including a ton of damage—the featherweight great is clearly in the final act of his career. However, the basic physical gifts and skills are still there. Like his onetime UFC counterpart Alexander Volkanovski, Freire has always been shorter than his foes, yet has managed to get into the pocket to deliver strikes thanks to a blend of crisp footwork, feints and plus athleticism. Also like Volkanovski, he is a perennially underrated wrestler who has the requisite fight IQ to blend level changes, and feinted level changes, at the perfect times.

Unfortunately, in a final similarity to “The Great,” as Freire’s speed, reflexes and durability have slipped in his late 30s, his performances have as well. He seemed completely stymied against Rodriguez, whose blend of reach, speed and power left “Pitbull” without any ideas on how to even get close enough to punch him or shoot a takedown, and while his outing against Ige was a blast, Ige is exactly the kind of meat-and-potatoes action fighter Freire would have feasted on just a few years ago.

That leads to Saturday and Keita, who is sufficiently touted that he enters fight week as a 2-to-1 favorite over a fighter who is probably still a Top 15 talent. The 27-year-old Belgian has absolutely wrecked shop in Oktagon MMA, winning the featherweight title before moving up in search of two-division glory. His signing is a coup for the UFC, especially in light of Oktagon’s own explosion, not to mention PFL’s increasing inroads in Europe.

Keita is a burly (though not quite so compact as Freire) fast-twitch athlete who throws big power punches with both hands, works the body well, and has great finishing instincts when his opponent is hurt. He greatly prefers to avoid the ground game, and most of his takedown defense is based on footwork, i.e. not being there, or shoving opponents away, rather than a traditional sprawl. Against the foes he has faced, including some solid European talents, it has been more than enough.

There is a possibility that this will look like the “Pitbull”-Rodriguez fight: that Freire will see Keita’s speed, taste his power in a couple of early exchanges, and then be effectively out of the fight after about three minutes. However, while Keita might be a “Pantera” in the making, he is far, far less experienced than Rodriguez, and has never faced a fighter comparable to even the 2025 version of Freire. On top of everything else, Keita will be moving back down to 145 pounds for the first time in 18 months, after three fights at lightweight. If that translates to any problems with his gas tank on Saturday, that only plays further into the veteran’s hands.

I think it’s more likely that this is a “y’all musta forgot” moment for Freire—or at least a last great hurrah—and a learning experience for Keita. Watch for Freire to take Keita down early and often, and for the Belgian to struggle to defend himself, let alone get back up. The pick is Freire to win a decision going away, and make it look surprisingly easy.



Jump To »
Imavov vs. Borralho
St. Denis vs. Ruffy
Bukauskas vs. Craig
Oki vs. Jones
McKee vs. Sola
Freire vs. Keita
The Prelims