Hollowed Out

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After the madness of last week, rolling into the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s fight night card in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Saturday felt more than a little anticlimactic.

Sure, Thiago Santos and Eryk Anders were probably always going to put on an entertaining scrap. The UFC Fight Night 137 main event was certainly as much as you could ask for from two late replacements fighting up a weight class, and nine of the remaining 13 fights ended inside the distance. At the same time, the footage of Anders collapsing on the way back to his corner at the end of the third round served as a fitting allegory for the plight of the diehard MMA fan in 2018.

The promotion was in Brazil, and seven days earlier, it held maiden show in Russia that was headlined by heavyweights Mark Hunt and Alexey Oleynik. Unless something drastic has changed in people’s viewing habits, both these events are likely to have attracted record-low ratings. Perhaps in recognition of that fact -- and the company’s inability or apathy towards changing it -- the UFC didn’t even bother slipping a 30-second promo for the Anders-Santos fight into the 43-minute-long trailer reel that played before Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov squared off at the UFC 229 press conference in New York two days prior.

That fight -- between the UFC’s most transcendent and volatile star and the most terrifying force to ever run through the 155-pound division -- is the crown jewel in an otherwise underwhelming year for the company. Whether the claim it will do 2.5 million buys is accurate or just trademark hyperbole from UFC President Dana White, the buzz around the contest and the degree of mainstream interest is undeniable. The promise of finally seeing McGregor back in four-ounce gloves opposite the stoic figure of Nurmagomedov has briefly revived MMA’s flagbearer in the eyes of the broader sports ecosystem, as has the more controversial but no less exciting news that former light heavyweight champion Jon Jones can return to the Octagon after Oct. 28.

However, the juxtaposition between these two types of card -- one which can generate half a million live viewers just for the press conference and the other flying acres below the mainstream sport’s radar -- also forces us to ask why there seems to be so few fighters and so few events in between.

Just a few weeks ago at UFC 228, an all-action prelim card featuring former strawweight champion Carla Esparza’s match with uber-prospect Tatiana Suarez did the lowest ratings in a year, while early indicators point to a disappointing pay-per-view buy rate for the welterweight championship headliner, despite the tremendous effort the promotion put into hyping then-undefeated challenger Darren Till. Five weeks earlier, the UFC on Fox 30 card showcasing three former champions in high-stakes fights did the lowest ratings in the series’ history. A superfight between the light heavyweight champion and the winningest heavyweight champion in history did just 380,000 buys in July. For the sake of reference, a card headlined by light heavyweight contenders Quinton Jackson and Matt Hamill did 325,000 buys back in 2011, with little in the way of a supporting cast. Meanwhile, a superfight between welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and lightweight champion B.J. Penn did 920,000 buys in 2009.

The carving out of the UFC’s middle class can no doubt be attributed to a number of variables, but the sheer number and length of the events is No. 1 with a bullet. With an oversaturated schedule, the promotion has tended to take a cookie-cutter approach to promoting many of its 40-plus events per year, and the much-maligned Reebok deal limits the ability of any one fighter to stand out from the crowd or build a personal brand like many of his or her predecessors did. Even when something extraordinary does happen inside the cage, the news cycle moves at such a hellacious pace that media and fans can only mull it over for a few days before the next event cranks up, if it isn’t already eclipsed by whatever weight-cutting mishap or injury that leads the headlines.

Having gobbled up all of the its viable competitors, save Bellator MMA and the Professional Fighters League, the UFC has also been unable to rely on importing ready-made names from other large promotions. Many forget that it’s this vehicle -- in the form of the now-defunct Strikeforce organization -- that did much of the heavy lifting for the likes of Cristiane Justino, Tyron Woodley and Daniel Cormier, perhaps the last line of defense behind McGregor that separates the UFC’s owners from the combat-sports equivalent of Chernobyl.

The many contradictions at the heart of the UFC’s promotional philosophy probably don’t help the its case, either, though I’ll admit that at this point I may just be projecting some personal gripes.

Fans are told week-in and week-out that “Top-10 Fighter X” and “Top-5 Fighter Y” are fighting for a title opportunity, but those proclamations are made so regularly and observed so infrequently that they’ve lost all meaning to the attentive fan. Likewise, fighters are given conflicting messages when it comes to “moving the needle.” The centerpiece of the company’s marketing strategy for UFC 229 is footage of McGregor committing criminal assault with 20 of his lackeys back in April, and yet the UFC’s 2018 Promotional Guidelines are riddled with prohibitions against “inappropriate verbal and online behavior,” “insulting language” and comments that “reflect negatively upon the athlete.” All technically place athletes at risk of having their purses reduced as a reprimand but might equally be listed as “ways to sell a fight.”

None of this is necessarily new information, but as the UFC leaves ratings purgatory on Fox for its new home on ESPN, you’d hope that White and his stripped-back executive team have a plan to right the ship. The return of McGregor and Jones -- especially if they can resume their winning ways -- will go some way in regenerating mainstream interest, but the company must also figure out more sustainable means of bringing up new talent and getting the average sports fan to pay attention.

Whether that means cutting back its events, finding new ways to differentiate the product or introducing greater transparency and accountability around rank and title so fans and fighters can have a better understanding of the stakes, something has to be done. Because like any polity, the UFC needs a middle class, and right now, it’s hollowed out beyond recognition.

Jacob Debets is a recent law graduate who lives in Melbourne, Australia. He has been an MMA fan for more than a decade and trains in muay Thai and boxing at DMDs MMA in Brunswick. He is currently writing a book analyzing the economics and politics of the MMA industry. You can view more of his writing at jacobdebets.com.